BigBear.ai vs. Nebius: which AI stock is the better buy for 2027? One of these AI stocks is shrinking and losing money, while the other is growing at triple digits and just turned profitable. By John Ballard - Updated Nov 3, 2026 at 8:36PM EST Key points. * BigBear.ai's trailing-12-month revenue fell about 1.5% with a roughly $180 million net loss. * Nebius revenue jumped 444% and the company swung to a $62 million profit. * Nebius is the pick for 2027 despite a 38% drop in the last month. * Motley Fool Issues First-Ever 9X Buy Alert" As the artificial intelligence (AI) race intensifies, investors are looking beyond the biggest names for hidden opportunities. Deciding between BigBear.ai (BBAI -1.94%) and Nebius Group (NBIS +7.25%) requires weighing government contracts against cloud infrastructure. BigBear.ai focuses on decision-intelligence software for high-stakes defense environments. Nebius builds the actual full-stack infrastructure needed to train and deploy these complex models. While both companies operate in the fast-moving AI sector, their business models, financial health, and customer bases offer investors starkly different paths. BBAI & NBIS: performance comparison. BBAI (BigBear.ai) NBIS (Nebius Group) Key financial metrics. BBAI - BigBear.ai - 1.94 % (- $0.05) NBIS - Nebius Group + 7.25 % (+ $10.25) Market Cap 52wk Range $2.07 - $7.40 Gross Margin Market Cap 52wk Range $73.52 - $299.86 Gross Margin The case for BigBear.ai. BigBear.ai provides specialized decision-intelligence and autonomy software tailored for government and commercial sectors. It provides biometric and data analysis solutions, with a major concentration of contracts adding a layer of risk. On a trailing-12-month (TTM) basis through the June quarter, revenue reached nearly $142 million, which represents a decline of approximately 1.5% compared to the prior year. The company reported a net loss of close to $180 million. This performance indicates that expenses significantly exceeded total sales. As of its June 2026 balance sheet, the current ratio is approximately 4.9x, measuring the ability to cover short-term debts with current assets. The debt-to-equity ratio was 0, as the company carries no debt. Where to invest $1,000 right now. When its analyst team has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, Stock Advisor's total average return is 875% - a market-crushing outperformance compared to 208% for the S&P 500. They just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy right now... *Stock Advisor returns as of November 2, 2026 TTM free cash flow, which is cash from operations minus capital expenditures, was negative $73 million, indicating the business consumes more cash than it generates. The case for Nebius. Nebius Group positions itself as an AI cloud company, building the full-stack infrastructure required for complex machine learning tasks. Its platform supports AI builders across healthcare and financial services by offering tools for model training and deployment. The company operates a global footprint with data centers and roughly 400 AI engineers to maintain its competitive position. As of the June quarter, TTM revenue reached nearly $1.4 billion, representing a significant 444% year-over-year increase. Net income improved to $62 million, up from under $10 million for the full year 2025. This performance shows a swing to profitability following significant net losses in previous years, driven by high demand for cloud services. Based on its June 2026 balance sheet, the current ratio is approximately 4.0x, while the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 1.0x. The company's total debt was approximately $8.6 billion, with an additional $1.5 billion in lease liabilities. This was partially offset by $8 billion of cash and equivalents. TTM free cash flow was negative $5.9 billion, reflecting the capital-intensive nature of the company's AI infrastructure. Note that stock-based compensation accounted for roughly 21.6% of operating cash flow, inflating reported cash generation because it is a non-cash expense. Risk profile comparison. BigBear.ai faces significant risks from revenue concentration, as a large portion of its business depends on a limited number of government contracts. These agreements are subject to budgetary fluctuations and may be terminated at any time for convenience. Nebius is funding massive capital spending needs. Heavy capital investment for data centers has resulted in negative free cash flow, and a slowdown in AI demand remains the primary risk. Valuation comparison. BigBear.ai appears cheaper based on sales over the past twelve months, while Nebius is the only one with a positive forward P/E using future earnings estimates. | Metric | BigBear.ai | Nebius | | Forward P/E | n/a | 230.2x | | P/S ratio | 8.8x | 27.3x | Valuation metrics include those sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from those of other data providers. Which stock would I buy for 2027? I would buy Nebius over BigBear right now. BigBear has a multi-year history of flat revenue. It reported $146 million in revenue in 2021, and $128 million in 2025. It has reported a net loss across that period. The company has to compete for government contracts, while Nebius has seen its revenue explode due to a shortage of data center capacity and high demand. Nebius is seeing immediate demand for its infrastructure as soon as it is brought online. Additionally, Nebius benefits from pricing power, with recent bids for compute capacity fetching higher prices than before. Analysts expect BigBear to continue reporting losses over the next few years, while expecting Nebius to continue growing earnings over the long term as it brings more capacity online. The risk for Nebius is that the stock trades at high multiples of sales and earnings. A lot of growth is priced in, so anything that stalls the AI build-out could hurt the stock. The stock has already fallen 38% in the last month over concerns about AI spending. Still, Nebius has a scarce asset that is in high demand, and that scarcity is being validated by explosive revenue growth and improving profitability. That's the stock I would rather hold for 2027 and beyond. Should you buy stock in BigBear.ai right now? Before you buy stock in BigBear.ai, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now... and BigBear.ai wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. 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How raised revenue guidance at BigBear.ai stock has changed its investment story. October 30, 2026 * BigBear.ai Holdings reported third quarter 2026 results with sales of US$43.58 million and a net loss of US$91.85 million, driven in part by a US$76.74 million goodwill impairment. * Despite the sizeable loss, management lifted full year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of US$150 million to US$165 million, which signals confidence in ongoing demand for its AI driven decision intelligence offerings. * We will examine how BigBear.ai Holdings' investment narrative aligns with the higher full year revenue guidance following these results. Spot opportunities across AI decision intelligence by scanning the 37 AI small caps that are already moving on earnings revisions and shifting guidance. BigBear.ai Holdings investment narrative recap. To own BigBear.ai Holdings, you need to believe its AI driven decision intelligence platforms can turn a lumpy, contract heavy book into a more recurring, scalable model over time. The raised 2026 revenue guidance points to management seeing enough demand to keep building that story. The near term swing factor remains execution on the existing backlog and converting pilots into longer programs. The biggest risk still sits with losses and contract timing. Third quarter figures showed a sizeable net loss and a large goodwill impairment, which does not change the core issue that the firm is unprofitable with high ongoing costs. Any slowdown in government decisions or larger program wins could extend that loss making stretch. The raised full year revenue outlook to US$150 million to US$165 million is the announcement that really ties this earnings release together. It tightens the focus on whether BigBear.ai Holdings can translate interest in defense, security and digital identity solutions into booked revenue rather than just pipeline conversation. For you, that guidance range becomes the reference point for the next few quarters. Consistent delivery against it would support the thesis that a US$385 million backlog and multiyear programs can offset contract lumpiness and government delays. Missing it would highlight how sensitive the business still is to procurement timing and elevated R&D and SG&A spending. BigBear.ai Holdings' current earnings are a loss of US$180.2 million, with analysts expecting earnings to reach US$16.7 million by 2029. This implies an earnings increase of roughly US$197 million, alongside forecast revenue of US$219.2 million by that same year and an assumed 15.6% annual revenue growth rate. Uncover why BigBear.ai Holdings' fair value indicates a 25% potential upside to its current price, which could narrow quickly. Exploring other perspectives. For BigBear.ai Holdings, the most bearish twist is on valuation risk. The lowest analysts already treated the pre earnings story as stretched, with a P/S of 10.2x and 2029 revenue pencilled in at about US$196.8 million and earnings of roughly US$15 million. Their view is more cautious than consensus. Those estimates were set before this guidance lift and goodwill impairment, so you should expect opinions to move. Use this spread in expectations as a prompt to compare several narratives, not just one. Explore 3 other BigBear.ai Holdings fair value estimates, including one that suggests it could be worth just $3.25! Decide for yourself. Don't just follow the ticker. Dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own. * A great starting point for your BigBear.ai Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. * See our latest analysis for BigBear.ai Holdings. The report includes a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual, the Snowflake, making it easy to evaluate BigBear.ai Holdings' overall financial health at a glance. Looking for more investment ideas beyond BigBear.ai Holdings? Once you have a view on BigBear.ai Holdings, it can help to compare that thesis with other opportunities that have very different balance sheets, income profiles, or risk levels. The Simply Wall St Screener lets you scan the market quickly so you can pressure test your conclusions against a wider opportunity set. * If capital preservation is high on your list, focus on companies that pair resilience with measured volatility through a 30 resilient stocks with low risk scores that filters for lower risk scores. * For investors hunting for mispriced quality, weigh BigBear.ai Holdings against a 29 high quality undervalued stocks that highlights businesses with stronger cash generation and healthier valuations. * If you want sturdier financial footing, compare its profile with a list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (25 results) to see which other stocks combine robust balance sheets with solid fundamentals. Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it. Discover if BigBear.ai Holdings might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition. 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