Capital Economics

Capital Economics

Independent macroeconomic insight and forecasting

Overview

Capital Economics provides independent economic insight to help organizations make better investment decisions and create sustainable value. A team of 70+ experienced economists delivers macroeconomic, financial market and sectoral analysis, forecasts and consultancy to a global client base. The firm offers country and regional coverage across 100+ markets, including major regions and economies, plus global overview services and specialized research on commodities and property sectors, along with bespoke consultancy projects. Their work translates complex economic data into practical recommendations for clients’ investment and risk management needs. What sets Capital Economics apart is its independence, breadth of coverage, and award-winning research delivered by a large team of economists focused on clear, actionable insights for a diverse range of markets. The company’s goal is to help clients make informed decisions that generate sustainable value over time.

About Capital Economics

Simplify's Rating
Why Capital Economics is rated
B-
Rated B on Competitive Edge
Rated B on Growth Potential
Rated C on Differentiation

Industries

Data & Analytics

Consulting

Company Size

51-200

Company Stage

N/A

Total Funding

N/A

Headquarters

London, United Kingdom

Founded

1999

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Simplify's Take

What believers are saying

  • The August 2026 site refresh shows active publishing and client engagement across regions.
  • Open hiring in London, Singapore, and China supports revenue expansion and coverage depth.
  • Property and macro forecasts still attract trade and media attention, reinforcing brand visibility.

What critics are saying

  • Graduate places for September 2026 are filled, limiting immediate trainee pipeline.
  • Open roles in China, Singapore, marketing, and demand generation signal growth, not slack.
  • A wrong-footed call on 2026 inflation or rates would damage its advisory credibility.

What makes Capital Economics unique

  • Neil Shearing leads Capital Economics’ global research and product strategy in August 2026.
  • Capital Economics publishes frequent Chief Economist’s Notes, weekly roundups, and 2026 outlooks.
  • Its commercial-property research spotlit a 35% office-value crash and 2040 recovery horizon.

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Benefits

Paid Vacation

Parental Leave

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Life Insurance

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Commuter Benefits

Training Programs

Professional Development Budget

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Startups Magazine
Jun 16th, 2026
SMEs that access finance 70% more likely to succeed.

SMEs that access finance 70% more likely to succeed. June 16, 2026 Startup Magazine's editorial team delivers independent, expert-led coverage of the... New research from Capital Economics, commissioned by SME lender iwoca, finds that small businesses receiving finance have more of a chance to build lasting, successful companies. The analysis finds iwoca's SME customers are 70%, or 1.7x, more likely to remain trading after three years than the UK average. According to the Companies House Business Register, the majority of UK SMEs fail within five years from incorporation, with other published estimates suggesting that only 10% survive after ten years. This analysis, based on Companies House data matched against iwoca's loan book, tracks the trajectory of businesses incorporated between 2020 and 2025 (over 23,000 unique businesses). Eight in ten (80%) firms that were incorporated in 2021 and received an iwoca loan in 2022 were still on the Companies House register in 2025. This stands in stark contrast to just 46% of all UK businesses incorporated in the same year, pointing to a higher likelihood of successful business outcomes after receiving a loan. Specialist lenders filling gap left by traditional banks. Specialist lenders like iwoca provide funding to smaller businesses that can't get the support needed from traditional banks. Cash flow is a particularly persistent barrier to growth for these businesses, with almost half (48%) reporting to have cash flow issues in a recent quarterly survey from Intuit QuickBooks. Even where bank finance could be available in principle, speed is a problem. Traditional lenders can take more than 20 to 30 working days just to make a decision, meaning many SMEs lose commercial opportunities before receiving a response. Helping to fill this critical success gap are challenger banks, specialist banks and non-bank lenders. They now account for 68% of UK gross SME lending, a growing market share from 39% in 2012. iwoca's contribution to the UK economy. Since launching in 2012, iwoca has grown rapidly, serving an expanding share of SME finance demand. In the 12 months to January 2026, iwoca's lending supported an estimated £3.5 billion of UK GDP. In the same time frame, it supported over 51,600 jobs, an increase on last year's by 3.5%, in addition to stimulating £1 billion in tax revenues. For every £100 of iwoca lending deployed, £230 of GDP is supported across the economy (a 2.3x multiplier). iwoca's reach extends across the whole of the UK: 79% of SMEs funded by iwoca are based outside London, with disproportionately large impacts in the North West, East of England, West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humber. Christoph Rieche, CEO and co-Founder of iwoca, said: "When 99.9% of the UK's businesses are SMEs, they act as an important proxy for broader economic health. Finance for these businesses goes a long way - iwoca's loans have generated £13 billion in GDP in under 15 years, and supported over 51,600 jobs in the UK in the last year alone. Small businesses with real potential are being held back because many can't access the finance they need at the right moment, it's certainly not a lack of ambition. What this research shows is that when finance is delivered, businesses are much more likely to weather difficult periods and succeed over the longer term. With better financial support, SMEs tend to grow revenues, hire, build something sustainable, and contribute substantially to the economy." Janine Hirt, CEO of Innovate Finance, said: "Fintech SME lending was a novel disruptor over a decade ago, and today, it has grown to be necessary financial infrastructure. iwoca's research shows what this means in practice - for hundreds of thousands of UK SMEs, specialist lenders are no longer a fringe option, but often one of the only ways to access finance reliably, grow, and keep contributing to the economy. The fact that 68% of UK SME lending now flows through challenger and specialist lenders shows that fintech players have become a mainstay of the SME lending market and a driver of growth." Andrew Evans, Deputy Chief Economist at Capital Economics, said: "The scale of the difference in business outcomes between iwoca customers and the wider business population is quite striking. Businesses that received an iwoca loan in their first year were 70% more likely to still be trading three years on, and the gap holds across different incorporation years and stages of company maturity. The evidence is clear: flexible, accessible lending is associated with growth beyond individual firms - and with the jobs, output and tax revenues that benefit the wider economy."

Tech in Asia
May 21st, 2025
Taiwan Sees Record Export Orders In April 2025 Driven By Ai Demand

👩‍🍳 How we use AI at Tech in Asia, thoughtfully and responsibly.🧔‍♂️ A friendly human may check it before it goes live. More news hereTaiwan’s export orders hit a record high of US$56.4 billion in April 2025, up 19.8% year-on-year and surpassing the government’s forecast.Total export orders for January to April 2025 rose 14.1% to US$205.8 billion, driven by global demand for AI, cloud services, and high-performance computing.Electronics led the surge with a 35% increase, followed by a 20% rise in information and communications, while optoelectronics grew 4.2%.Traditional industries had mixed results, with declines in metals and plastics but growth in machinery due to demand for automation.The US remained Taiwan’s top market in April 2025, while the MOEA expects further growth in May 2025 despite geopolitical risks.🔗 Source: Focus Taiwan🧠 Food for thought1️⃣ Taiwan’s economic pivot to high-tech manufacturing pays dividendsTaiwan’s record export performance demonstrates the success of its decades-long economic transformation from a trading hub to a high-tech manufacturing powerhouse.The country underwent a remarkable growth phase beginning in the mid-1960s, often called the “Taiwan Miracle,” shifting from labor-intensive manufacturing to capital-intensive industries in the 1980s 1.This strategic pivot enabled Taiwan to become a critical player in global electronics, now producing a significant share of the world’s motherboards and notebook PCs 1.The current 35% surge in electronics orders ($23.09 billion) reflects how Taiwan’s industrial policy successfully positioned the country at the center of the global technology supply chain.Taiwan’s GDP growth averaged 4.5% from 1992 to 2012, raising per capita income from $9,116 to $19,762, creating the economic foundation for today’s tech-driven export success 2.The April 2025 figures show this transformation is accelerating, with traditional sectors like metals and plastics declining while advanced technology sectors flourish, representing a continued evolution of Taiwan’s economy.2️⃣ Taiwan navigates shifting US-China trade dynamicsTaiwan’s export patterns reveal its delicate balancing act between its two largest trading partners amid evolving geopolitical tensions.While the US remains Taiwan’s top customer with $19.29 billion in April orders (up 30.3%), Taiwan’s economic relationship with China has grown significantly over decades, with China receiving over 40% of Taiwan’s exports 3.This dual dependency creates unique vulnerabilities, as demonstrated by how the 90-day suspension of US tariffs influenced order timing and volumes.Taiwan’s total trade represents approximately 140% of its GDP, making it exceptionally sensitive to trade policy changes and geopolitical shifts 2.The government has recognized these risks by implementing the “New Southbound Policy” to diversify economic partnerships beyond its traditional reliance on China and the US 3.Taiwan’s continued export growth despite these complex dynamics demonstrates remarkable economic resilience in navigating competing pressures from the world’s two largest economies.3️⃣ AI investment creates a new growth engine for Taiwan’s semiconductor ecosystemThe record export figures highlight how AI has become Taiwan’s new economic catalyst, particularly benefiting its world-leading semiconductor industry.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) reported a 60% profit surge in Q1 2025, directly attributable to global demand for chips used in AI applications 4.This AI-driven boom extends beyond just semiconductors to related components, with significant growth in printed circuit boards mentioned in the export data.Private investment in Taiwan rose by 5.66% in Q1 2025, reflecting industry confidence in continuing AI-driven capital expenditures and infrastructure development 4.Economic forecasts now project Taiwan’s growth to outpace its performance in the 2010s, based primarily on sustained global AI spending and Taiwan’s strategic position in that supply chain 5.The April export data confirms this trend is accelerating rather than slowing, with AI demand creating a sustained tailwind for Taiwan’s technology ecosystem that may reshape its economic trajectory for years to come

Mark Allen Group
Apr 23rd, 2025
US trade tariffs trigger rocky ride for dollar

Capital Economics' Neil Shearing spoke to delegates at the Portfolio Adviser Spring Congress about US trade tariffs, Europe's stagnant economy and the outlook for inflation and interest rates

Yahoo Finance
Feb 28th, 2025
Rates Have Fallen To 2025 Lows — But That'S Not Helping The Stock Market

Interest rates have fallen since the start of the year, but that hasn't given stocks much of a boost. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) fell to its lowest level of the year this week, hovering around 4.3%. In theory, the sharp decline in rates should have given more juice to the stock market since investors no longer have to compete with ultra-attractive bond returns. Lower rates also typically translate to lower borrowing costs for corporations, which often boost earnings and lift share prices. So why are markets stalling out? The SP 500 (^GSPC) has sputtered, barely trading in the green since the start of the year, while the previously reliable Magnificent Seven players have largely lagged the broader indexes. The reason may have to do with concerns over economic growth, according to Wall Street watchers

Yahoo Finance
Feb 6th, 2024
Wall Street Is Increasingly Worried About Inflation'S Resurgence

Recent signs of stickier-than-expected inflation have some Wall Street strategists concerned that investors have become too optimistic about the odds of a soft landing in the US economy.The prevailing concern is that inflation could enter an era of stagflation, where price increases reaccelerate while economic growth slows. This was most famously seen during the 1970s and 1980s when a swift move down in inflation proved to be a head fake, and the US was left fighting higher prices for more than a decade."We believe that there is a risk of the narrative turning back from Goldilocks towards something like 1970s stagflation, with significant implications for asset allocation," JPMorgan chief market strategist Marko Kolanovic wrote in a note to clients on Feb. 21. He expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4,200 by the end of the year.A string of hotter-than-expected inflation reports in January have led Kolanovic and others to conclude that inflation's bumpy path to the Fed's 2% target should have investors worried as stocks sit at all-time highs."Although it's low probability, it's likely that investors are under estimating the chance for stagflation in the next 12 to 18 months," State Street Global Advisors chief investment strategist Michael Arone told Yahoo Finance. "And I think if anything, the last few years have taught investors that kind of low probability outcome happens far more often than the statistics suggest that it should happen."If stagflation were to take hold, real assets like commodities outperform stocks and bonds, per Arone."Should this kind of low probability outcome occur, investors will be better for it by having a modest allocation somewhere in the 5% to 10% range into some of those kind of real assets," Arone said.The inflation debateMarketGauge.com chief strategist Michele Schneider flagged stagflation as a key risk for 2024 in January's edition of the Yahoo Finance Chartbook. She noted "startling similarities" between the path of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), when she first began working in markets in the late 1970s to now.Story continuesIn the 1970s and 1980s inflation story, an oil embargo and a war in the Middle East helped spark inflation

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