CCapital Economics provides independent economic insight to help organizations make better investment decisions and create sustainable value. A team of 70+ experienced economists delivers macroeconomic, financial market and sectoral analysis, forecasts and consultancy to a global client base. The firm offers country and regional coverage across 100+ markets, including major regions and economies, plus global overview services and specialized research on commodities and property sectors, along with bespoke consultancy projects. Their work translates complex economic data into practical recommendations for clients’ investment and risk management needs. What sets Capital Economics apart is its independence, breadth of coverage, and award-winning research delivered by a large team of economists focused on clear, actionable insights for a diverse range of markets. The company’s goal is to help clients make informed decisions that generate sustainable value over time.
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Logistics UK: Logistics "doubles your money" for the UK economy. Every £1 of economic activity that the logistics sector generates directly creates a further £1.04 across the wider economy. That is the headline finding of new research from business group Logistics UK, produced in association with Capital Economics. The report also suggests that a 1% increase in logistics' share of the economy could attract £30 billion of foreign investment into the UK. That equates to more than £1,000 per household. The research shows that the sector underpins £356 billion of economic activity, 5.3 million jobs and £65 billion in tax revenues. It also enables more than £1 trillion of international trade every year. A message for the Chancellor. Independent macroeconomists at Capital Economics launched the modelling today (27 October) at the Houses of Parliament, on the eve of the Budget. The analysis examines the indirect, induced and catalytic impact of the logistics sector on the UK economy. It shows that the sector's influence reaches well beyond its £175 billion direct annual contribution.[1] Logistics businesses and workers add a further £181 billion each year through their own personal spending. "With the Budget imminent, my message to the Chancellor is that the logistics sector doubles your money," says Logistics UK's Chief Executive, Ben Fletcher, "with every £1 of economic activity generated by its sector delivering a further £1.04 through its supply chain and employee spending. "When considered alongside the sector's direct financial contribution, significant tax contributions and role as a major employer, it is clear that logistics is not simply a critical sector in its own right, but an enabler of prosperity across the whole economy. These findings demonstrate why supporting the conditions for logistics businesses to invest, grow and operate efficiently should be a top priority for the government as it seeks to boost growth in every postcode." Supply chains and employee spending. The report, UK logistics: a critical driver of growth and investment, sets out the sector's wider impact in detail. Spending by logistics businesses with their UK suppliers supported over £90 billion of gross value added (GVA) across the economy in 2024. It also supported 1.5 million jobs. Five sectors each gained more than £10 billion in GVA from this activity: transport, administrative services, professional services, finance and manufacturing. Logistics employees add to the total through their own spending. They buy goods and services from UK businesses, and this "induced" activity contributed another £90 billion in GVA in 2024. It supported a further 1.1 million jobs. Billions for the Exchequer. Capital Economics found that the logistics sector contributes £30 billion a year in tax revenue. The Exchequer receives a further £34 billion from spending by logistics businesses and their workers. Together, these figures give the Treasury a clear financial reason to back the sector. A boost for foreign investment. The research also identifies a significant investment dividend from a strong logistics sector. Alongside the gains in GVA, tax revenue and jobs, the analysis quantifies the well-documented link between a thriving logistics sector and foreign direct investment (FDI). FDI is a key driver of productivity, innovation and economic growth. The modelling suggests that a one percentage point increase in logistics' share of total GVA is associated with a one percentage point increase in FDI as a share of total GDP. That is equivalent to a £30 billion boost to the economy, or more than £1,000 for every UK household. "International companies invest in countries where goods move efficiently," continues Fletcher. "Reliable supply chains with good transport networks, warehousing capacity, ports and airports all reduce costs, increase profits and expand market access, and investors know that. To get growth going, we must ensure the logistics sector has the capacity, resilience and infrastructure needed to drive growth and attract investment from home and abroad."
SMEs that access finance 70% more likely to succeed. June 16, 2026 Startup Magazine's editorial team delivers independent, expert-led coverage of the... New research from Capital Economics, commissioned by SME lender iwoca, finds that small businesses receiving finance have more of a chance to build lasting, successful companies. The analysis finds iwoca's SME customers are 70%, or 1.7x, more likely to remain trading after three years than the UK average. According to the Companies House Business Register, the majority of UK SMEs fail within five years from incorporation, with other published estimates suggesting that only 10% survive after ten years. This analysis, based on Companies House data matched against iwoca's loan book, tracks the trajectory of businesses incorporated between 2020 and 2025 (over 23,000 unique businesses). Eight in ten (80%) firms that were incorporated in 2021 and received an iwoca loan in 2022 were still on the Companies House register in 2025. This stands in stark contrast to just 46% of all UK businesses incorporated in the same year, pointing to a higher likelihood of successful business outcomes after receiving a loan. Specialist lenders filling gap left by traditional banks. Specialist lenders like iwoca provide funding to smaller businesses that can't get the support needed from traditional banks. Cash flow is a particularly persistent barrier to growth for these businesses, with almost half (48%) reporting to have cash flow issues in a recent quarterly survey from Intuit QuickBooks. Even where bank finance could be available in principle, speed is a problem. Traditional lenders can take more than 20 to 30 working days just to make a decision, meaning many SMEs lose commercial opportunities before receiving a response. Helping to fill this critical success gap are challenger banks, specialist banks and non-bank lenders. They now account for 68% of UK gross SME lending, a growing market share from 39% in 2012. iwoca's contribution to the UK economy. Since launching in 2012, iwoca has grown rapidly, serving an expanding share of SME finance demand. In the 12 months to January 2026, iwoca's lending supported an estimated £3.5 billion of UK GDP. In the same time frame, it supported over 51,600 jobs, an increase on last year's by 3.5%, in addition to stimulating £1 billion in tax revenues. For every £100 of iwoca lending deployed, £230 of GDP is supported across the economy (a 2.3x multiplier). iwoca's reach extends across the whole of the UK: 79% of SMEs funded by iwoca are based outside London, with disproportionately large impacts in the North West, East of England, West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humber. Christoph Rieche, CEO and co-Founder of iwoca, said: "When 99.9% of the UK's businesses are SMEs, they act as an important proxy for broader economic health. Finance for these businesses goes a long way - iwoca's loans have generated £13 billion in GDP in under 15 years, and supported over 51,600 jobs in the UK in the last year alone. Small businesses with real potential are being held back because many can't access the finance they need at the right moment, it's certainly not a lack of ambition. What this research shows is that when finance is delivered, businesses are much more likely to weather difficult periods and succeed over the longer term. With better financial support, SMEs tend to grow revenues, hire, build something sustainable, and contribute substantially to the economy." Janine Hirt, CEO of Innovate Finance, said: "Fintech SME lending was a novel disruptor over a decade ago, and today, it has grown to be necessary financial infrastructure. iwoca's research shows what this means in practice - for hundreds of thousands of UK SMEs, specialist lenders are no longer a fringe option, but often one of the only ways to access finance reliably, grow, and keep contributing to the economy. The fact that 68% of UK SME lending now flows through challenger and specialist lenders shows that fintech players have become a mainstay of the SME lending market and a driver of growth." Andrew Evans, Deputy Chief Economist at Capital Economics, said: "The scale of the difference in business outcomes between iwoca customers and the wider business population is quite striking. Businesses that received an iwoca loan in their first year were 70% more likely to still be trading three years on, and the gap holds across different incorporation years and stages of company maturity. The evidence is clear: flexible, accessible lending is associated with growth beyond individual firms - and with the jobs, output and tax revenues that benefit the wider economy."
👩🍳 How we use AI at Tech in Asia, thoughtfully and responsibly.🧔♂️ A friendly human may check it before it goes live. More news hereTaiwan’s export orders hit a record high of US$56.4 billion in April 2025, up 19.8% year-on-year and surpassing the government’s forecast.Total export orders for January to April 2025 rose 14.1% to US$205.8 billion, driven by global demand for AI, cloud services, and high-performance computing.Electronics led the surge with a 35% increase, followed by a 20% rise in information and communications, while optoelectronics grew 4.2%.Traditional industries had mixed results, with declines in metals and plastics but growth in machinery due to demand for automation.The US remained Taiwan’s top market in April 2025, while the MOEA expects further growth in May 2025 despite geopolitical risks.🔗 Source: Focus Taiwan🧠 Food for thought1️⃣ Taiwan’s economic pivot to high-tech manufacturing pays dividendsTaiwan’s record export performance demonstrates the success of its decades-long economic transformation from a trading hub to a high-tech manufacturing powerhouse.The country underwent a remarkable growth phase beginning in the mid-1960s, often called the “Taiwan Miracle,” shifting from labor-intensive manufacturing to capital-intensive industries in the 1980s 1.This strategic pivot enabled Taiwan to become a critical player in global electronics, now producing a significant share of the world’s motherboards and notebook PCs 1.The current 35% surge in electronics orders ($23.09 billion) reflects how Taiwan’s industrial policy successfully positioned the country at the center of the global technology supply chain.Taiwan’s GDP growth averaged 4.5% from 1992 to 2012, raising per capita income from $9,116 to $19,762, creating the economic foundation for today’s tech-driven export success 2.The April 2025 figures show this transformation is accelerating, with traditional sectors like metals and plastics declining while advanced technology sectors flourish, representing a continued evolution of Taiwan’s economy.2️⃣ Taiwan navigates shifting US-China trade dynamicsTaiwan’s export patterns reveal its delicate balancing act between its two largest trading partners amid evolving geopolitical tensions.While the US remains Taiwan’s top customer with $19.29 billion in April orders (up 30.3%), Taiwan’s economic relationship with China has grown significantly over decades, with China receiving over 40% of Taiwan’s exports 3.This dual dependency creates unique vulnerabilities, as demonstrated by how the 90-day suspension of US tariffs influenced order timing and volumes.Taiwan’s total trade represents approximately 140% of its GDP, making it exceptionally sensitive to trade policy changes and geopolitical shifts 2.The government has recognized these risks by implementing the “New Southbound Policy” to diversify economic partnerships beyond its traditional reliance on China and the US 3.Taiwan’s continued export growth despite these complex dynamics demonstrates remarkable economic resilience in navigating competing pressures from the world’s two largest economies.3️⃣ AI investment creates a new growth engine for Taiwan’s semiconductor ecosystemThe record export figures highlight how AI has become Taiwan’s new economic catalyst, particularly benefiting its world-leading semiconductor industry.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) reported a 60% profit surge in Q1 2025, directly attributable to global demand for chips used in AI applications 4.This AI-driven boom extends beyond just semiconductors to related components, with significant growth in printed circuit boards mentioned in the export data.Private investment in Taiwan rose by 5.66% in Q1 2025, reflecting industry confidence in continuing AI-driven capital expenditures and infrastructure development 4.Economic forecasts now project Taiwan’s growth to outpace its performance in the 2010s, based primarily on sustained global AI spending and Taiwan’s strategic position in that supply chain 5.The April export data confirms this trend is accelerating rather than slowing, with AI demand creating a sustained tailwind for Taiwan’s technology ecosystem that may reshape its economic trajectory for years to come
Capital Economics' Neil Shearing spoke to delegates at the Portfolio Adviser Spring Congress about US trade tariffs, Europe's stagnant economy and the outlook for inflation and interest rates
Interest rates have fallen since the start of the year, but that hasn't given stocks much of a boost. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) fell to its lowest level of the year this week, hovering around 4.3%. In theory, the sharp decline in rates should have given more juice to the stock market since investors no longer have to compete with ultra-attractive bond returns. Lower rates also typically translate to lower borrowing costs for corporations, which often boost earnings and lift share prices. So why are markets stalling out? The SP 500 (^GSPC) has sputtered, barely trading in the green since the start of the year, while the previously reliable Magnificent Seven players have largely lagged the broader indexes. The reason may have to do with concerns over economic growth, according to Wall Street watchers
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Industries
Company Size
51-200
Company Stage
N/A
Total Funding
N/A
Headquarters
London, United Kingdom
Founded
1999
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