C

CarbonPlan

Nonprofit analyzes climate data for policy

Overview

CarbonPlan analyzes climate science and policy to help decision-makers evaluate and adopt effective climate solutions. It produces data-driven datasets and tools on topics like carbon offsets, carbon removal, and climate risks, and collaborates with researchers and organizations to model impacts (for example, extreme heat) and to produce reports and dashboards for policymakers and practitioners. The company’s product work consists of transparent datasets, analytical insights, and decision-support tools that stakeholders can use to assess programs and risks. CarbonPlan differentiates itself as a nonprofit focused on rigorous data analysis and public collaboration, relying on donations and grants rather than commercial sales, and often partnering with other organizations to expand its datasets and tools. Its goal is to provide actionable, evidence-based guidance that helps governments, researchers, and institutions implement effective climate actions and policies.

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About CarbonPlan

Simplify's Rating
Why CarbonPlan is rated
C+
Rated C on Competitive Edge
Rated B on Growth Potential
Rated C on Differentiation

Industries

Data & AnalyticsConsultingSocial Impact

Company Size

11-50

Company Stage

Grant

Total Funding

$500K

Headquarters

San Francisco, CA

Founded

2020

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What believers are saying

  • CarbonPlan’s October 2026 blog activity shows sustained release velocity across offsets, CDR, and climate-risk tooling.
  • July 2026 wildfire tracking of California projects reinforces CarbonPlan’s relevance to insurers, policymakers, and media.
  • The 2026 CDR collaboration with Stanford, Carbon Direct, Amazon, and Stripe expands credibility.

What critics are saying

  • California regulators and offset issuers face CarbonPlan’s 2026 wildfire and over-crediting critiques directly.
  • Open Climate Risk lacks proprietary moats; competitors can copy its open methods within months.
  • Nonprofit grant dependence creates existential risk if donors tire of contentious offset and CDR research.

What makes CarbonPlan unique

  • CarbonPlan’s Open Climate Risk launched February 2026 with fully public wildfire methodology and code.
  • CarbonPlan builds transparent climate tooling, including zarr-layer and topozarr for browser-native gridded data.
  • CarbonPlan’s offsets research combines scientific analysis with policy advocacy, unlike typical climate analytics shops.

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Funding

Total Funding

$500k

Above

Industry Average

Funded Over

1 Rounds

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Company News

Radiant Earth
Aug 10th, 2026
Hybrid Icechunk stores for serverless web mapping.

Hybrid Icechunk stores for serverless web mapping. 10 August 2026 This past winter, Cloudnativegeo saw one of the worst snowpacks in recent memory for the Western U.S., and Cloudnativegeo wanted to be able to explore how this season compared to last. NOAA provides seasonal snowfall data as NetCDF, a format commonly used for scientific workflows and analysis. Web maps shine for exploring a dataset quickly, but NetCDF files have not traditionally been compatible with web mapping, and transforming them into a web map-compatible format is a lot of work. Cloudnativegeo has been experimenting with a suite of tools and workflows that make visualizing archival formats like NetCDF in web maps significantly easier. Both the static map above and the interactive demo below render this NOAA data without the aid of a tile server, directly rendering bytes from the NetCDF analysis data. Web mapping primer. The standard path to visualizing data in a web map relies on map tiles, organized into a gridded pyramid starting with full-resolution data at its base, and reduced-resolution multiscale levels above, typically in the Web Mercator projection. As you pan and zoom, the web map requests the tiles relevant to its current extent and zoom level from a server. These tiles can be generated on-the-fly from the source data, but this comes with performance, compute, and maintenance costs. Alternatively, you can generate tiles ahead of time and store them, but this leads to data duplication and storage costs. Ideally, Cloudnativegeo would just visualize the source data directly! Web maps without a tile server. Recently, CarbonPlan released zarr-layer, an open source library for rendering gridded data directly in the browser. Given a Zarr store, zarr-layer reprojects the data and renders it in a web map without requiring an intermediary tile server. This approach works great if you have full control over your data and can store it as Zarr, but there are petabytes of gridded climate and weather data that are stored in archival file formats such as NetCDF/HDF5, GRIB, TIFF, and others. Fortunately, tools like VirtualiZarr let you read these archival data formats as if they were Zarr. These virtual Zarr references are stored in the Icechunk format and don't duplicate the data, but instead point to byte ranges inside the original files. To access these stores in a browser, Cloudnativegeo built icechunk-js, a lightweight Icechunk reader. Tying together a few tools - VirtualiZarr + icechunk-js + zarr-layer - Cloudnativegeo can render archival gridded datasets directly in the browser without a server or duplicate data. For many lower resolution datasets, this combination works as-is. Viewing broad swaths of higher resolution data, on the other hand, still requires multiscale generation for acceptable web performance. Fortunately, these multiscales are lightweight and easy to add to its virtual store. Adding multiscales to virtual stores. Direct access isn't necessarily fast access. High resolution data isn't relevant for zoomed-out views, but without multiscales, Cloudnativegeo'd be forced to load all of the data. Multiscales are pre-generated coarsened versions of data at multiple zoom levels. The Zarr community has recently converged on a standardized way of representing these coarsened versions of high resolution spatial data: the multiscale spec. To streamline the multiscale creation process Cloudnativegeo released topozarr, a library for adding multiscales and associated metadata to Zarr and Icechunk stores. Cloudnativegeo can use this to create a "hybrid" store where the full resolution data is stored as references to the original analysis data, with relatively lightweight multiscales added on. This one-time operation is cheap compared to full tileset generation because no reprojection, regridding, or duplication of the data is required. Direct access to data. Traditional web maps work with visualization-specific representations of the data, but the model Cloudnativegeo describe here streams the raw data to the browser. Since the data in the map is the actual analysis data, not an image representation, Cloudnativegeo can perform computations on it directly, revisualize it dynamically to hone in on interesting trends, or query regions of interest for exact values or averages. As a quick example, the map below shows the difference in each grid cell's snow depth between this past winter and the previous winter. It also indicates whether the current zoom is rendering NetCDF data directly or the multiscale overviews. Caveats: Chunking and bucket access. Since Cloudnativegeo is rendering the underlying analysis data directly, Cloudnativegeo is subject to the choices its creators made about chunking and codecs. Unfortunately, the chunking scheme chosen for analysis is not always best suited for web visualization. In its snowpack example, the underlying chunk scheme of the NetCDF data is in latitudinal strips from one end of the continent to the other, which is far from ideal for regional maps. To see the snow depth of your planned ski line in the Bitterroot Mountains, full strips of data stretching from Seattle to New Hampshire are loaded. For some purposes, the performance is acceptable, but other chunking schemes might make this approach untenable. Bucket access to the underlying dataset can be a problem too. If the bucket hosting the analysis data has access restrictions, or if Cross-origin Resource Sharing (CORS) is not enabled, this approach will not work. NOAA's hosting setup for seasonal snowpack data, for instance, doesn't have CORS enabled, preventing cross-origin access via browsers. As a workaround, Cloudnativegeo has mirrored the original NetCDF on S3 for this demo. Try it out. This work is exploratory, and there are many underlying data formats Cloudnativegeo haven't tested out yet. All of the pieces are open source and Cloudnativegeo'd love to see what you build. The maps above are a single self-contained HTML file, which you can read or fork at icechunk-maps. Please open issues on GitHub, reach out to Cloudnativegeo at [email protected], or find Cloudnativegeo in the CNG Slack. Thanks to the Earthmover and Development Seed teams for much of the tooling and conceptual work that underlies this workflow.

Earthmover
Apr 7th, 2026
Expanding the Earthmover Data Marketplace: Sylvera, Spire, Eagle Rock and carbonplan.

Expanding the Earthmover Data Marketplace: Sylvera, Spire, Eagle Rock and carbonplan. When Earthmover launched the Earthmover Data Marketplace in January, Earthmover described it as just the beginning. Today, Earthmover is showing that growth. Earthmover is excited to announce four new data partners joining the marketplace: Sylvera, Spire, Eagle Rock Analytics, and CarbonPlan. This second cohort adds proprietary data fueled models in the persistently challenging field of sub seasonal forecasting (Spire) and expands the marketplace in an important new direction: beyond weather and atmospheric forecasting into Earth observation, forest carbon, wildfire risk, and high-resolution regional climate projections. Together, these datasets serve the growing community of teams building at the intersection of climate risk, infrastructure resilience, and carbon accountability. The momentum is real. In the two months since the Marketplace launched, Earthmover has watched data teams across energy, insurance, agriculture, and climate risk discover that accessing production-grade ARCO data - no ingestion required, no ongoing maintenance - fundamentally changes what they can build and how fast they can build it. These four new partners deepen that value considerably. What's new. Sylvera: Biomass Atlas. Forest carbon accounting has long been hampered by the limitations of traditional field measurement: small plot sizes, poor georeferencing, and allometric models that often bias toward small trees and systematically underperform on large-canopy tropical forests. Sylvera's Biomass Atlas takes a different approach. Their dataset provides spatially and temporally explicit estimates of forest aboveground biomass density (AGBD) and canopy height at 30m resolution on an annual cadence from 2000 to the present, with pixel-level uncertainty estimates throughout. The distinguishing feature is the underlying reference data: Sylvera has pioneered the use of Multi-Scale LiDAR (MSL), a peer-reviewed method combining terrestrial laser scanning at plot scale with UAV and airborne LiDAR upscaling, covering more than 250,000 hectares of forests worldwide, representing over $10 million in data acquisition and processing. Conventional allometry often introduces significant uncertainty - ranging from 15% to 30% - into AGBD estimations. In contrast, MSL technology achieves a 3% error margin and is unbiased against destructive measurements. These high-quality MSL datasets offer the most accurate foundation available for training Biomass Atlas earth observation models. Courtesy: Sylvera The result is a dataset suitable for carbon project monitoring, jurisdictional REDD+ accounting, and AI model training at a scale and accuracy that was previously unavailable in a ready-to-use format. Key variables: * above_ground_biomass_density, canopy_height * above_ground_biomass_density_standard_error, canopy_height_standard_error * Binary masks for gap-filled and MSL-calibrated pixels A 180,000-hectare sample covering Pará, Brazil is available for immediate exploration. Full global dataset access is available on request. Spire: ai-driven sub-seasonal-to-seasonal forecasts. The 6-46 day forecast range has long been the hardest horizon to get right - too far out for numerical weather prediction to be skillful, too near-term for seasonal climate models to be useful. Spire's AI-S2S model was built specifically for this gap. Spire's sub-seasonal-to-seasonal forecast system runs daily, producing 200 ensemble members out to 46 days on a 0.5° global grid, designed and trained entirely in-house, independent of any external physical or AI-based forecast system. The model is trained and fine-tuned on ERA5 reanalysis, ECMWF IFS analyses, and Spire's proprietary data, with all inputs processed into daily statistics prior to training. The result is a fully probabilistic forecast product that gives users a rich picture of uncertainty at extended range. Courtesy: Spire The dataset is organized into four Zarr groups - ensemble mean and standard deviation (mean_stddev), percentile distributions (percentiles), climatological probability forecasts (probabilities), and anomalies relative to ERA5 1991-2020 climatology (anomalies) - covering surface and upper-air variables including temperature, wind, precipitation, pressure, radiation, geopotential height, and specific humidity across four pressure levels. Each variable is chunked at (1, 1, 361, 720) along the reference time, step, lat, and lon dimensions, meaning a single global map is always a single-chunk read. The dataset updates daily on a rolling 15-issuance window, making it well-suited for operational energy trading, agricultural planning, and insurance risk pricing workflows that depend on fresh extended-range outlooks every morning. Eagle Rock Analytics: WRF dynamically downscaled climate projections. California's energy system faces myriad decisions about grid infrastructure, building codes, and demand forecasting that require understanding climate conditions not at a global scale, but at a neighborhood and subregional scale. Eagle Rock Analytics, on behalf of Cal-Adapt, working with datasets produced at UCLA and funded by the California Energy Commission and the Amazon Sustainability and Diversity Initiative, has contributed exactly that. Their WRF dataset provides dynamically downscaled CMIP6 projections at 3 km, 9 km, and 45 km resolutions over California, WECC, and the Western United States respectively - across four climate scenarios (historical, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5), eight carefully selected GCMs, and three temporal resolutions (hourly, daily, monthly). The data is produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which preserves dynamical consistency across variables - temperature, wind, humidity, and pressure are always physically coherent with each other, unlike statistical downscaling methods where variables are processed independently. Courtesy: Eagle Rock Analytics Five of the eight GCMs include a-priori bias correction against ERA5 reanalysis, and are the recommended starting point for energy sector applications. The dataset is structured as a single Icechunk repository with hierarchically organized Zarr groups, chunked to support both spatial snapshot queries and point time series efficiently. This dataset is central to California's Fifth Climate Change Assessment and supports use cases from heating and cooling degree day analysis to WECC-wide grid reliability planning. Key variable highlighted: t2 - air temperature at 2m, covering 1980 through 2099. CarbonPlan: Open Climate Risk wildfire dataset. As wildfire risk has moved from a regional concern to a foundational input for property insurance, energy infrastructure planning, and municipal resilience, the need for reproducible, open, methodologically transparent risk datasets has grown alongside it. CarbonPlan's Open Climate Risk wildfire dataset delivers exactly that. It provides wildfire risk estimates across the contiguous United States at 30 meter resolution, with two time horizons - approximately 2011 and 2047 - enabling direct comparison of how risk is projected to shift under climate change. The dataset is built entirely on free, public input data and is fully reproducible, making it suitable for regulated use cases where auditability matters. Core variables include annual burn probability (bp_2011, bp_2047) and annual relative risk to potential structures (rps_2011, rps_2047), alongside reference variables for cross-validation. Data is provided in the WGS84 CRS at ~0.00028 degree resolution and chunked regionally for efficient access. Courtesy: CarbonPlan This is a natural complement to the climate projection data now available through Eagle Rock on the marketplace - together they give teams a path from physical climate projections to actualized risk estimates at the asset level. Why this cohort matters. Its first cohort established the marketplace as the home for production-grade weather and atmospheric forecast data. This cohort signals something broader: the Earthmover Data Marketplace is becoming the central access point for the full range of environmental datasets that climate-aware applications require - from forest carbon and wildfire risk to high-resolution regional projections and Earth observation. Every dataset in the marketplace is available in Icechunk format, meaning it integrates directly into Xarray and Zarr workflows with no custom ingestion. Subscribers receive incremental updates via Icechunk's ACID transaction model, and all data is accessible through the same consistent API regardless of the underlying provider. If you're building in energy, insurance, climate risk, or carbon markets, these datasets are ready for you now. Go ahead: Explore the marketplace. And if you have a dataset that belongs here, reach out. Earthmover is onboarding new providers continuously.

Heatmap News
Feb 10th, 2026
This New Wildfire Risk Model Has No Secrets

This new wildfire risk model has no secrets. CarbonPlan has a new tool to measure climate risk that comes with full transparency. 02/10/2026 On a warming planet, knowing whether the home you're about to invest your life savings in is at risk of being wiped out by a wildfire or drowned in a flood becomes paramount. And yet public data is almost nonexistent. While private companies offer property-level climate risk assessments - usually for a fee - it's hard to know which to trust or how they should be used. Companies feed different datasets into their models and make different assumptions, and often don't share all the details. The models have been shown to predict disparate outcomes for the same locations. For a measure of the gap between where climate risk models are and where consumers want them to be, look no further than Zillow. The real estate website added a "climate risk" section to its property listings in 2024 in response to customer demand - only to axe the feature a year later at the behest of an industry group that questioned the accuracy of its risk ratings. Now, however, a new tool that assesses wildfire risk for every building in the United States aims to advance the field through total transparency. The nonprofit research group CarbonPlan launched the free, user-friendly app called Open Climate Risk on Tuesday. It allows anyone to enter an address and view a wildfire risk score, on a scale of zero to 10, along with an explanation of how it was calculated. The underlying methodology, data, and code are all public. It's the first fully open platform of its kind, according to CarbonPlan. "Right now, the way science works in the climate risk space is that every model is independently developed at different companies, and we essentially have no idea what's happening in them. We have no idea if they're any good," Oriana Chegwidden, a research scientist at CarbonPlan who led the creation of the tool, told me. "Our hope is that by opening this up, people will be able to start contributing, to help us learn how we can do it better." That might mean critiquing CarbonPlan's methods or code, for example, or re-running the model with additional data. The score itself doesn't tell you much other than the relative risk between one building and another. But the platform also breaks out the two inputs behind it: burn probability, or the likelihood a building will catch fire in a given year, and "conditional risk," an estimate of how much of the building's value would be lost if it does burn, based on projected fire intensity. The projections are largely based on a U.S. Forest Service dataset that models fire frequency on wildlands throughout the country. CarbonPlan uses additional data on wind speed and direction to predict how a given fire might spread into an urban area. Users can toggle between risk under the "current" climate and a "future" climate, which jumps about 20 years out. They can also see the distribution of buildings across the spectrum of risk scores at various geographic scales - by state, county, census tract, or census block. One of CarbonPlan's hopes is to help people become more informed consumers of climate risk data by helping them understand how it's put together and what questions they might want to ask. While its model is more crude than others on the market, the tool is explicit about the factors that are not accounted for in the results. The loss estimates are based on a generic building, for example, and do not recognize specific traits like fire-resistant construction materials or landscaping that could make a home more fire resistant. They also don't consider building-to-building spread. The underlying U.S. Forest Service data is also limited in that it maps vegetation across the country as it existed at the end of 2020 - any changes since then that could have reduced fire-igniting fuels, such as prescribed burns, are not incorporated. Right now, there's no industry standard for calculating or communicating climate risk. The Global Association of Risk Professionals recently asked 13 climate risk companies for data on floods, tropical storms, wildfires, and heat at 100 addresses to compare the outputs. The authors found there were "significant disparities," between estimates of vulnerability and damages at the same locations. When it came to wildfires, specifically, they were unable to even compare the data, because the companies all conveyed the risk using different benchmarks. The implications of having so many diverging methods and results extend beyond individual homebuying decisions. Insurance companies use climate risk data to set rates; publicly-traded companies use it to make disclosures to investors; policymakers use it to guide community planning and investments in adaptation. Some products might be better suited to one task or another. Katherine Mach, an environmental science and policy professor at the University of Miami, told me the next step for the field is to have more systematic reporting requirements that help people understand how accurate the data are and what types of decisions they can be used for. "It's almost like we need the equivalent of industry standards," she said. "You're going to release a climate product? Here's what you need to clearly communicate." CarbonPlan collected feedback from various likely users of the tool throughout the development process, including municipal planners, climate scientists, and consumer advocates. The group also hopes to foster an "iterative cycle of community-driven model development," spurring other researchers to inspect the data, critique it, add to it, and spin out new versions. This is common practice in other areas of climate science, like Earth system modeling and economic modeling, and has been instrumental in advancing those fields. "There's nothing like that for climate risk right now," Chegwidden said. The first step will be raising more money to support further work, but the goal is to partner with outside researchers on comparative analyses and case studies. Tracy Aquino Anderson, CarbonPlan's interim executive director, told me they have already heard from one researcher who has a fire risk dataset that could be added to the platform. The group has also been invited to present the platform to two academic climate research groups later this spring. The problem of black box models exists not just because the field is full of private companies that don't want to share their code. A study published earlier this month found that only 4% of the most-cited peer-reviewed climate risk studies have made their data and code public, despite journal standards that require transparency. "When you're working with climate data, you're dealing with all of these uncertainties," Adam Pollack, an assistant professor at the University of Iowa who researches flood risk and the lead author of the paper, told me. "Researchers don't always understand all of the assumptions that are implicit in choices that they make. That's fine - we have methods for dealing with that. We do model intercomparisons, we do these synthesis studies as a field. The foundation of that is openness and reusability." Though he was not involved in the CarbonPlan project, he said it was exactly what his paper was calling for. For example, CarbonPlan's "future" calculations are based on an extreme warming scenario that has become controversial among climate scientists. CarbonPlan didn't choose this scenario - it's what the Forest Service's dataset used, and that was the only off-the-shelf data available for the entire United States. But because the underlying code is open-source, critics are free to swap it out for other data they may have access to. "That's what's so great about this," Pollack said. "People who have different values, assumptions, and expertise, can get new estimates and build a shared understanding."

PR Newswire
Dec 20th, 2023
Patrick J. McGovern Foundation awards $66.4 million to advance AI and data solutions that center people and purpose

/PRNewswire/ -- One year after the public was introduced to the transformative potential of generative AI, the AI landscape is garnering more attention than...

CarbonPlan
Dec 19th, 2022
Updating Enhanced Weathering in the CDR Verification Framework – CarbonPlan

Last September, CarbonPlan released a CDR Verification Framework that maps out the key uncertainties associated with quantifying net carbon removal and storage durability for different carbon dioxide removal pathways.

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