SoFi: silly Wall St. Games can't outlast results. Summary. * SoFi Technologies delivered another blockbuster quarter with 44% YoY revenue growth and 70% adjusted EBITDA growth. * SOFI's shift toward fee-based revenues, now $571 million, reduces business risk and diversifies away from personal loans. * The fintech forecasts growing Products 4x the current level producing $5 billion in annual revenue, suggesting revenues far exceed analyst estimates thru 2030. * My ultra Bullish thesis stands: SOFI's valuation remains compelling as the stock trades at only 10x EBITDA, far below its growth rate. * This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street. Learn More" SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) reports incredible earnings reports like clockwork, yet the stock is still below levels where SoFi traded during the SPAC process back in 2021. The fintech has a booming business due to a shift towards fee income from new product launches, like monthly subscriptions. My investment thesis remains ultra-bullish on the stock, only getting cheaper every quarterly report where SoFi trades flat. Boom times. The fintech reported another blockbuster quarter, and the stock really hasn't budged considering the strong numbers. SoFi reported the following Q3'26 numbers: * Non-GAAP EPS of $0.18 beats by $0.01. * Revenue of $1.4B (+44% YoY) beats by $140 million. * Adj. EBITDA is up 70% to a record $470 million. * Member growth up 35% to a record 17.1 million members. * Product growth is up 44% to a record 26.7 million products. The fintech continues to fire away on all metrics, with key products up 44%. SoFi even smashed revenue estimates for 44% growth after disappointing the market following Q2 results with conservative guidance due to worries over 2 rate hikes in 2026. The Products growth is where SoFi is focusing growth efforts. The fintech can add a new member and ultimately double the value of the member via signing the customer up for a 2nd product. Right now, product growth is at 44% due to the company increasing the Products Per Member at about a 6% clip. SoFi now has a stated goal of growing Products to 100 million by the end 2030 per CEO Anthony Noto on the Q3'26 earnings call as follows: Not everything we do will be successful but our unwavering focus and execution have been critical in beating the 1% odds that a business can reach $100 million in revenue, not just once but 8 times. Today, less than a decade later, we see a clear path to achieving 100 million products by the end of 2030, which is a 4x increase from where we stand today. The fee-based revenue is a big part of the growth story and reduction of the business risk in being tied to risky personal loans. SoFi reported these revenues grew by 40% to reach $571 million. An investor needs to understand the loan platform revenues make up $151 million of those fee-based revenues. Also, SoFi only recorded $1.6 million in net crypto transaction revenue during the quarter, so the business isn't even seeing upside from this product yet. As always, note the non-GAAP EPS really isn't fully adjusted, with non-cash charges still included in these numbers. In our opinion, a big part of why SoFi still trades at a massive discount to their growth rate is the insistence of the company to list non-GAAP EPS that isn't and still includes large stock-based compensation and amortization charges, combining for roughly $150 million in the quarter. The results are so strong, SoFi is reporting a 46% incremental adjusted EBITDA margin on new revenue, and the market mostly yawns. Trading substantially below growth rates. SoFi just guided to 2027 EBITDA of $2.24 billion for 35% growth, while the stock only trades at 10x EBITDA. Most stocks usually trade much closer to growth rates, suggesting a fintech like SoFi trading at 20x to 30x EBITDA, or $30 to $45 per share. Note, the company achieved these metrics by forecasting rate hikes into guidance. The key to guidance for revenues growing another 27% in 2027, followed by even stronger adjusted EBITDA growth, is management continuing to project a tough economic environment. On the Q3'26 earnings call, CEO Anthony Noto outlined the economic headwinds as follows: These are strong results in any environment, but they're even more remarkable when considering how 2026 has turned out. Nine months into the year, the environment looks different than what we expected in January. Our original 2026 guidance assumed 2 rate cuts. Instead, we've already had one rate hike. And today, we are positioned for 2 more rate hikes this year. The market spent all year fretting the 2026 numbers due to this shift from a U.S. economy expecting rate cuts to one now expecting a 2nd hike in December and SoFi guiding to a 3rd rate hike this year. The fintech is now guiding to 40% revenue growth for the year, while the stock market remains unsure on whether SoFi is even an attractive stock to own. The stock is up to just $17 on the incredible Q3 report. SoFi just reported 70% EBITDA growth, trading at 10x next year's EBITDA, and it still can't rally beyond what was generally the lows before the last month. The stock has consolidated for 6 months, which is a pretty typical period before a breakout. Again, Wall St. is playing silly games with the stock, only predicting a $20 stock price and just 11 Buy ratings out of 25 analysts. SoFi can't seem to get many analysts to price the stock based on the actual results with consistently strong growth. As an example, the company is a $5 billion business now and has a goal for SoFi heading towards a $20 billion revenue rate in 2030 based on the forecast for Products growing 4x during this period. Oddly, the consensus analyst estimates have the company forecast at only reaching $9.5 billion by 2030, though limited analysts are providing 2029/30 numbers. SoFi has too much momentum in the business for the stock to trade at 10x EBITDA with strong evidence of more sustainable growth in the 20%+ range. The company isn't even being slowed down by a tough interest rate environment. The stock traded at $30 nearly a year ago before putting up a year with 40% growth. The argument is that SoFi should trade much higher now, not nearly 50% lower. The key risk remains a downturn in the economy causing major problems with credit losses, especially if the Fed was to hike rates several more times this year. SoFi could face a big hit to earnings, and the fintech hasn't faced a major economic recession since scaling into investing in personal loans the last couple of years. At the same time, investing partners could pull back from the lending platform, causing a major hit to revenues while credit losses mount under the worst-case scenario. Takeaway. The key investor takeaway is that SoFi remains absurdly cheap. Wall St. doesn't like the stock with more than 50% of analysts not having a Buy rating, but the clear value exists. Investors should use the perplexing weakness to continue loading up on SoFi before Wall Street catches on. 56.84K Followers Stone Fox Capital is an RIA from Oklahoma. Mark Holder is a CPA with degrees in Accounting and Finance. He is also Series 65 licensed and has 30 years of investing experience, including 15 years as a portfolio manager. Mark leads the investing group Out Fox The Street where he shares stock picks and deep research to help readers uncover potential multibaggers while managing portfolio risk via diversification. Features include various model portfolios, stock picks with identifiable catalysts, daily updates, real-time alerts, and access to community chat and direct chat with Mark for questions. Learn more. Analyst's Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SOFI either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be taken as a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. Before buying or selling any stock, you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion or consult a financial advisor. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

SoFi reported third-quarter revenue of $1.37 billion, up 44.4% year on year and 8.5% above analyst estimates of $1.26 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.18 against estimates of $0.17, and adjusted EBITDA reached $469.8 million. Operating margin rose to 23.2% from 15.6% a year earlier. The company guided full-year EBITDA to $2.24 billion at the midpoint. On the earnings call, chief executive officer Anthony Noto called SMB lending an early-stage business. Chief financial officer Chris Lapointe said the 2027 plan needs no external capital raise. Noto blamed a slowdown in SoFi Plus subscriber growth on anti-fraud measures. He kept the goal of one million subscribers next year. SoFi shares trade at $16.75, up from $14.47 before the results.

SoFi's recent 13% upward burst means execution is now a must. SoFi's stock surged 13% on a single earnings report, but its own history shows those gains have a habit of vanishing within weeks. Whether this rally sticks depends on what the next two quarters reveal about the company's ability to... SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI | SOFI Price Prediction) trades at $17.14. The stock posted a 13.42% day-of jump on its third-quarter earnings report, so it now has to deliver on the bigger promises that caused that move. SoFi runs a digital personal finance app backed by a bank charter. It funds its loans with $51.3B in deposits and serves 17.1M members. Even after the rally, the stock is down 34.53% year to date. Management said its original 2026 guidance assumed rate cuts, and the company experienced one rate hike instead. Raised 2027 guidance makes SoFi look cheap on forward earnings. The quarter beat on both lines. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.18 vs. $0.17 consensus, and revenue reached $1.39B vs. $1.26B. Loan originations hit a record $16.93B (+71% YoY), and net interest margin widened to 6.14%. Management's 2027 outlook calls for $6.40B in adjusted revenue and $0.90 in adjusted EPS, which puts the stock at about 19x next year's guided earnings. It trades at a forward P/E of 18 and a PEG ratio of 0.514. Management also said the plan does not require a capital raise. Shrinking surprises and rate risk threaten the rally. Past beats have not held up for shareholders. After the Q4 2025 report, earnings came in 16.07% above estimates, yet the stock fell 18.02% over the next 30 days. The size of each EPS beat has also shrunk, from 93.55% in Q1 2025 to 7.02% this quarter. Fair-value losses exceeded $800 million, and hedge gains of about $734 million covered most of them. Technology Platform revenue fell 24%. Credit card charge-offs ran at 7.77%, and tax expense rose to $76.8M from $9.2M. With a beta of 2.332 and a trailing P/E near 30, the stock leaves little room for a stumble. Strong engine, unproven follow-through. Cross-selling is working. Products per member rose to 1.56, and 51% of new products went to existing members. Still, the price remains below the 200-day moving average of $17.93. The Technology Platform recovery and the goal of 1 million SoFi Plus members before the end of next year both still need to be proven. Free Report, Just Released Why Didn't SOFI Make The Top 10 List? 24/7 Wall St has helped investors make money for over two decades, and our top analysts just finished ranking the definitive Top 10 Stocks To Buy Now. Not the ten biggest companies. Not the ten everyone is arguing about. The ten best stocks to buy right now. And SOFI didn't make the cut! The report is free, and you can see why we think each stock is a top investment today. Analysts mostly sit on the sidelines despite 19% upside. The consensus target of $20.45 means 19.3% upside from $17.14. Targets are not guaranteed. Here is how the 25 covering analysts split: * Strong Buy: 4 * Buy: 5 * Hold: 12 * Sell: 2 * Strong Sell: 2 SoFi gained 15.03% over the past week, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.09%. Over one year, SoFi is down 45.86% while the index rose 12.42%. Next two quarters will decide whether SoFi's rally lasts. At $17.14, SoFi faces a test of whether its rally can last. The fundamentals justify the jump, but the stock's history shows that beats tend to fade. The first test is Q4 guidance of about $1,375,000,000 in revenue and 19 cents in EPS. A clean Q4 report, a recovered 200-day average, and Technology Platform growth moving back toward management's 25% steady-state goal would strengthen the bull case. Rising charge-offs or bigger fair-value hits under the two rate hikes assumed for 2027 would strengthen the bear case. A high-beta stock after a fast run carries elevated risk in both directions. SoFi has earned the rally, and the next two quarters will decide whether it can hold onto it. Got $1,000? Before you buy SOFI, read this. If you have cash sitting in your account right now, give this two minutes. After more than two decades of helping investors beat the market, our top analysts at 24/7 Wall St. put together a definitive report on the Top 10 Stocks To Buy Today. And SOFI wasn't one of them. They combed the entire market. It's not 10 ideas, not 10 stocks everyone is talking about, it's what their research points to as the 10 best stocks to buy right now, and it's free. Read more here and see which stocks made the list ->> Alex Sirois Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis. Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation - a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles. At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.