As the Trump administration continues its crackdown on illegal immigrants across the U.S., the nation’s food supply chain could face the same challenges the United Kingdom encountered when it left the European Union in January 2020.Brexit, the U.K.’s withdrawal from the EU, disrupted the country’s labor pool and created instability across the agriculture and food supply chains, according to Barbara Guignard, a principal at Efficio.“Trump’s plans to crack down on illegal immigration in the U.S. strongly remind me of what happened with Brexit. When the U.K. chose to restrict access to immigrant labor, it created a major crisis in the agricultural sector,” Guignard told FreightWaves in an interview.Efficio, a global procurement and supply chain consultancy, has offices in the U.S. and Mexico, with its headquarters in London. Guignard, based in London, leads large-scale international procurement transformation projects across multiple sectors, specializing in food, retail, and manufacturing.In the U.K., Brexit’s impact on the labor market hit quickly, leading to workforce shortages and even empty supermarket shelves in fresh produce aisles, she said.“Brexit wasn’t about an illegal workforce — it was about restricting access to anyone who wasn’t British,” Guignard said

“Uncertainty is the biggest threat to supply chain efficiency, and the latest tariff developments underscore why,” says Matt Lekstutis at global procurement and supply chain consultancy Efficio. Lekstutis was speaking to AgFunderNews as the Trump administration paused plans to institute a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada hours before they were due to take effect after securing commitments from both trading partners to increase border security. A 10% tariff on goods coming into the US from China has gone into effect, meanwhile, prompting immediate retaliatory measures from China on a range of US goods from crude oil to agricultural machinery

New York-based Keychain, which has an online platform enabling CPG companies and retailers to find manufacturing partners, says it has seen an uptick in activity on its site as firms explore how to de-risk their supply chains in the event tariffs come in. There is significant uncertainty about the level and geographical focus of potential tariffs, with President Elect Donald Trump initially positing 10-20% tariffs on all goods coming into the US and 60% tariffs on goods from China, but currently focusing his attention on Canada and Mexico, using the threat of 25% tariffs to extract concessions over border policy. Regardless of where his administration ultimately lands, firms using Keychain are aggressively exploring domestic manufacturing options for raw materials and packaging as well as finished products so that they have contingency plans in place should Trump pull the trigger, cofounder and CEO Oisin Hanrahan told AgFunderNews