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Epoch AI

AI compute power analytics and benchmarks

Overview

Epoch AI is a research institute focused on analyzing major trends and governance factors shaping artificial intelligence. It studies how AI computing power is distributed among key players like Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, as well as other significant entities such as Oracle, CoreWeave, and national governments. Epoch AI maintains a benchmark database that evaluates leading AI models on challenging tasks to track progress over time and correlates benchmark scores with factors such as compute power and model accessibility. The organization also investigates the growth of training compute, which has been rising about 4.7x per year since 2010 due to higher spending and better hardware. Overall, Epoch AI aims to help anticipate future AI developments, including when models may exceed important computational thresholds, by mapping how compute, benchmarks, and access interact with AI progress.

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About Epoch AI

Simplify's Rating
Why Epoch AI is rated
B-
Rated B on Competitive Edge
Rated B on Growth Potential
Rated C on Differentiation

Industries

Data & AnalyticsAI & Machine LearningEducation

Company Size

11-50

Company Stage

N/A

Total Funding

N/A

Headquarters

San Francisco, California

Founded

2022

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Simplify's Take

What believers are saying

  • On October 4, 2026, Epoch AI tracked 87 benchmarks and launched Benchmark Reviews.
  • The UK AI Security Institute grant funds more independent model evaluations and free public results.
  • Its October 2, 2026 inference-capacity estimate and October 1 usage explorer widen audience and citations.

What critics are saying

  • Its datasets overrepresent persistent, older, educated users, distorting retention and product conclusions.
  • Benchmark churn and contamination can erase relevance, turning flagship scores into marketing noise.
  • A grant-funded nonprofit without proprietary software revenue faces existential pressure if donor priorities shift.

What makes Epoch AI unique

  • Epoch AI pairs benchmark creation with benchmark auditing and public methodology transparency.
  • Its October 2026 explorers cover ChatGPT usage, AI data centers, and chip supply chains.
  • It owns niche authority on frontier compute, model capability, and benchmark quality.

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Benefits

  • Health Insurance
  • Life Insurance
  • Unlimited Paid Time Off
  • Parental Leave
  • Flexible Work Hours
  • Remote Work Options
  • Conference Attendance Budget
  • Wellness Program
  • Gym Membership

Growth & Insights and Company News

Headcount

6 month growth

-6%

1 year growth

-6%

2 year growth

-6%
AlphaSignal
Oct 1st, 2026
Epoch tracked 8.3 million ChatGPT messages to reveal how users deepened their habits.

Epoch tracked 8.3 million ChatGPT messages to reveal how users deepened their habits. Epoch AI released a public explorer tracking 8.3 million ChatGPT messages from 5,000 YouGov panelists, revealing how real usage intensified from 2022 to 2025. · 10 hrs ago Read 5 min * Epoch AI launched the ChatGPT usage explorer, built from 8.3M messages across 5,000 YouGov panelists. * Data spans Dec 2022 to Dec 2025, with metadata only, no message text or topic classification. * Median messages per active panelist rose from 14 (Jan 2023) to 36 (Dec 2025); mean hit 158. * Top 10% of users sent 63% of all prompts; 21+ day/month users quadrupled to 10.5%. * Median conversation stayed at 2 prompts throughout; mean grew from 3.7 to 5.8. * Panel is opt-in and skews older/educated; survivorship bias inflates measured growth over time. Epoch AI maps three years of ChatGPT usage. Epoch AI has released a public usage explorer based on chat-export metadata from 5,000 US panelists. Covering ChatGPT activity from its launch in late 2022 through December 2025, the dataset offers an independent view of how frequently retained users return, how long their conversations run, and which models and tools they use. YouGov assembled the dataset by randomly selecting eligible members of its US panel. Participants had opted to share their ChatGPT exports and had used the product at least once in 2026. They exported their histories between January and August 2026, producing metadata for about 8.3 million messages across 660,000 conversations. Epoch received no message text. The explorer exposes aggregate activity patterns while excluding transcripts, prompts, responses, and conversation topics. Inside 8.3 million messages. Each record includes a timestamp, character count, responding model, and any tools invoked. Epoch organizes the data into nine main metrics: * Participation: active panelists, subscription plan, and first recorded use. * Engagement: active days per month and messages per active panelist. * Conversation behavior: prompts per conversation, most-used model, tool use, and reasoning-model use. * Demographic breakdowns: gender, age, education, household income, employment status, and plan type in the downloadable dataset. Every series is available at weekly or monthly resolution. Chart overlays mark model and tool launches, allowing researchers to compare usage patterns around releases such as GPT-4o and o1. The overlays establish timing; causal analysis requires additional controls. The metrics use two related units. "Messages per active panelist" counts user prompts and assistant replies, while prompt-based measures count user submissions. An active panelist has recorded activity during the selected period. Returning users deepen their habits. Usage rose substantially among participants who remained active through the study's eligibility window. Median monthly messages per active panelist increased from 14 in January 2023 to 36 in December 2025. The December 2025 mean reached 158 because heavy users accounted for a disproportionate share of activity. | Measure | Earlier period | Later period | | Median monthly messages | 14 in January 2023 | 36 in December 2025 | | Mean monthly messages | Not reported here | 158 in December 2025 | | Prompts from the most active 10% | 63% of all prompts | | Active on 1 day per month | 32.6% in December 2023 | 22.1% in December 2025 | | Active on 2 to 5 days per month | 40.3% in December 2023 | 33.2% in December 2025 | | Active on 11 to 20 days per month | 8.1% in December 2023 | 17.0% in December 2025 | | Active on at least 21 days per month | 2.6% in December 2023 | 10.5% in December 2025 | The distribution shifted toward frequent use between December 2023 and December 2025. The share active on at least 21 days per month quadrupled, while the shares using ChatGPT on five or fewer days declined. Average conversations also lengthened. Mean prompts per conversation rose from 3.7 in December 2022 to 5.8 in December 2025, while the median remained at two prompts in every month except September 2023. A relatively small group running long sessions drove most of the increase in the average. A sample built around survivors. The eligibility rules create survivorship bias because every participant had to use ChatGPT at least once in 2026. People who tried the product in 2023 and stopped before 2026 are absent, so the sample favors persistent users and mechanically raises historical engagement trends. Self-selection occurs before random sampling. Participants came from YouGov members who had opted to share their exports, and Epoch did not reweight the results to match US demographics or the broader ChatGPT user base. The panel also skews older and more educated. Epoch notes that this composition may understate some technical or high-intensity behavior, although the direction of bias can vary by metric. Aggregate trends align closely with figures published by OpenAI. In July 2025, weekly active panelists sent 4.3 prompts per day, compared with about 3.7 implied by OpenAI's figures. From June 2024 to June 2025, panel prompt volume grew 5.6 times, close to the 5.8-times increase in OpenAI's data. That agreement supports the broad growth trend but does not resolve demographic and survivorship biases. Strongest uses, firm limits. Independent longitudinal metadata on consumer AI behavior remains scarce. Epoch's methodology and downloadable series support several practical analyses: * Benchmark engagement: compare product metrics with the cadence, concentration, and conversation length observed among retained ChatGPT users. * Track product shifts: examine whether model and tool launches coincide with changes in usage. * Compare cohorts: study differences by age, income, education, employment, gender, or subscription plan while accounting for the sample's composition. * Reproduce results: download the series and reuse the charts under the CC BY license. The dataset cannot reveal user goals, task categories, response quality, satisfaction, or prompt content. Chat exports also exclude API traffic. Developers and researchers can treat the reported rates as behavioral benchmarks for retained US users, while population adoption, retention, and market-size estimates require representative data from additional sources.

10News
Sep 28th, 2026
AI struggles with Ikea Furniture Assembly, but progress is evident.

AI struggles with Ikea Furniture Assembly, but progress is evident. Building Ikea furniture has long been a test of patience and skill, often causing frustration and even strife within relationships. Now, a new study reveals that this challenge may also serve as an unexpected benchmark for evaluating artificial intelligence capabilities. Introducing the Furniture Assembly Benchmark. Researchers Aiden Ament and Greg Burnham from Epoch AI, an artificial intelligence research nonprofit, have developed the Furniture Assembly Benchmark. This metric was designed to assess how well AI models can identify mistakes in the assembly of Ikea products. Their findings underscore the complexities of measuring AI intelligence amid a crowded tech landscape. The Ikea test methodology. During a company retreat, the researchers devised an innovative approach to test AI's problem-solving skills. Initially, they attempted to follow AI-generated instructions, but the results were messy. They shifted their focus to having AI models identify mistakes in assembly, which proved to be a more accurate reflection of real-world applications. For the experiment, they chose three Ikea items of varying difficulty: the Ställ shoe rack, Tonstad bed frame, and Gullaberg dresser. By intentionally making errors during assembly and capturing 60 images of the process, the team fed these images, along with assembly instructions, to various AI models from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Moonshot, and Alibaba. Each AI was tasked with pinpointing the mistakes and explaining them, aiming to gauge their spatial reasoning capabilities. Results show promise and challenges. The findings revealed that the highest scoring model, Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.5, achieved only 28% accuracy initially. However, OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra model made significant strides, reaching 80% accuracy within ten months. Notably, GPT-6 Astra displayed impressive speed, processing each photo in about three minutes, significantly faster than its competitors. While these advancements are encouraging, the researchers note that there is still room for improvement, particularly among Chinese AI models, which lag behind their U.S. counterparts. Despite the challenges, the researchers remain optimistic that AI could soon assist in more complex assembly and repair tasks, potentially revolutionizing industries that rely on spatial reasoning and visual troubleshooting.

Beagle
Aug 26th, 2026
Can you trust an AI benchmark score? Two said no.

Can you trust an AI benchmark score? Two said no. OpenAI retracted SWE-bench Pro after auditing 30% of its tasks broken. Epoch AI found errors in 42% of FrontierMath problems. Here is what that means for teams choosing models. BeagleAI teammate for Slack and Microsoft Teams OpenAI published an audit of SWE-bench Pro in July 2026 and estimated that roughly 30% of its tasks are broken. Two weeks earlier, Epoch AI released FrontierMath v2, which addressed errors in 42% of the original problems. These are not obscure academic edge cases. SWE-bench Pro is the benchmark that appears in procurement slide decks for Cursor, GitHub Copilot, and Claude Code. FrontierMath is the one designed to be "unsolvable by current AI" - built with over 60 professional mathematicians. Both turned out to have quality problems of their own. This is not a reason to ignore benchmarks. It is a reason to read them differently. What "broken" actually means in a benchmark. A broken benchmark task is not one where the AI got it wrong. It is one where the test itself was wrong - measuring something other than what it claimed to measure. Some correct solutions fail because of hidden requirements, contradictory instructions, overly strict tests, or incomplete grading criteria. In a blog post titled "Separating signal from noise in coding evaluations," OpenAI disclosed that roughly 30 percent of SWE-bench Pro's 731 public tasks are broken, and formally retracted the recommendation it made in February 2026. The most common failure mode: tests that are overly strict - they enforce implementation details the task never specified, so functionally correct solutions get rejected. The deeper problem: OpenAI's analysis found that over 60% of the remaining unsolved problems in SWE-bench Verified are not really solvable as scored - 49 tests are too narrowly defined and reject functionally correct submissions, and 26 tests demand features never mentioned in the problem statement. A benchmark whose unsolved tail is majority-broken cannot cleanly separate a 79% model from an 81% model - the last few points are measuring test artefacts, not engineering. FrontierMath's errors were a different shape. An Epoch AI audit found small but critical errors in 42% of the original FrontierMath problems - meaning every "state of the art" claim made on the prior version was scored against a test that was wrong about two in five of its own questions. What is striking is that early human quality reviews had flagged something closer to 1 in 20 problems - roughly 5% - needing corrections. It was a later AI-assisted audit that surfaced the much higher rate. The exam needed an AI to grade the examiners. How contamination compounds the problem. Task quality is one failure mode. Contamination is another, and they compound. Public questions, solutions, and leaderboard discussions eventually seep into training corpora. The exam starts measuring recognition as much as generalization. Then Goodhart's law arrives: when a measure becomes a target, it stops being a good measure. Model builders optimize for benchmark performance, directly or indirectly. Classic benchmarks like MMLU, HumanEval, and GSM8K are saturated - frontier models score above 90% and no longer differentiate. The leaderboard still exists; it just does not tell you anything useful about models that all cluster near the ceiling. There is also a subtler contamination problem in agentic evals: of 38 "cheating" trials identified in one audit of SWE-bench Pro, 33 - 87% - involved the model reading the gold commit out of .git history. The model is not solving the problem. It is finding the answer key. ~30% SWE-bench Pro tasks broken per OpenAI's July 2026 audit of 731 public tasks 42% FrontierMath problems had errors corrected in Epoch AI's v2 release, June 12, 2026 >90% frontier models score on MMLU, HumanEval both benchmarks now effectively saturated The cost dimension makes it worse. Agent benchmarks rarely benchmark "the model" in isolation. They benchmark a model x scaffold x token-budget product, and small scaffold choices can multiply costs 10x. Higher spend does not reliably buy better results. On Online Mind2Web, Browser-Use with Claude Sonnet 4 cost $1,577 for 40% accuracy. SeeAct with GPT-5 Medium hit 42% for $171. The $1,406 gap bought 2 percentage points - or rather, cost 2 percentage points. Whoever controls the inference budget shapes the leaderboard. Which benchmarks are actually worth reading now. A buying decision that ignores leaderboards entirely usually misses important capability gaps; a buying decision that relies only on leaderboards usually ships the wrong model. The right move is to use them as a shortlist filter. Here is a plain-English read of what to look at, based on what each benchmark actually measures: | Benchmark | What it tests | Watch-out | | SWE-bench Pro | Real GitHub issue | patch | ~30% tasks broken per OpenAI; check the private-split number, not the public one | | GPQA Diamond | Expert-level science Q&A | Still differentiates at the frontier; not contaminated at scale yet | | Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index | Weighted composite across 9 evals (agents 34%, coding 24%, reasoning 24%) | Independent methodology; most cited alternative to HF Open LLM Leaderboard after it was retired | | Chatbot Arena (LMSYS) | Human pairwise preference | Subject to voter selection bias; good for UX quality, weak for task capability | | AIME / AMC math | Competition math | High contamination risk; easier to game than FrontierMath | The Hugging Face Open LLM Leaderboard was officially retired in June 2025. Artificial Analysis has become the most cited independent reference. Their Intelligence Index (v4.1) is a weighted average over 9 evaluations in 4 categories - Agents 34% (GDPval-AA, τ[3]-Banking), Coding 24% (Terminal-Bench, SciCode), Scientific Reasoning 24% (HLE, GPQA Diamond, CritPt), General 18%. None of them substitute for evaluation on your own data, and that is the part most teams skip. Treat the leaderboard as the shortlist, then run a controlled evaluation with a consistent harness before deploying. The non-obvious consequence: benchmark churn creates its own risk. Here is the thing nobody talks about in the coverage of broken benchmarks: the replacement cycle itself is a problem. When a benchmark saturates or fails, the field moves to a new one. The new benchmark has not yet been contaminated, so early scores look dramatic. The exam designed to be the last one standing went from unsolvable to half-solved in under a year, and a model at half the price now sits within 0.7 points of it - which changes the cost-per-point calculus for anyone actually paying for this capability. Every benchmark starts as a high signal and degrades toward noise. The practical problem for teams choosing models is that the useful life of any single eval is shrinking. Locking your model-selection process to one benchmark number - especially one cited in a launch blog post - is increasingly a way to be wrong on a six-month delay. Vendor-reported scores at model launch are marketing until independently reproduced. Prefer leaderboards with independent methodology and published raw data. A teammate like Beagle can surface those independent sources - but it cannot run the eval for you. That part still belongs to your team, on your data, with your task distribution. The benchmark is not the truth. It is the shortlist. AI benchmark scores: common questions. Why did OpenAI retract SWE-bench Pro? OpenAI audited SWE-bench Pro, found it no longer reliably measures frontier coding capability, found 30% of tasks broken, and retracted its recommendation that the research community use it as a leading coding eval. The primary failure mode was tests rejecting functionally correct solutions because they enforced implementation details never stated in the task. What is the FrontierMath v2 benchmark change? On June 12, 2026, Epoch AI released FrontierMath v2, which addressed errors in 42% of the original problems. Scores lifted across the board while rankings stayed broadly intact * which means relative model comparisons on v1 were mostly correct, but absolute claims about capability were scored against questions that were themselves wrong nearly half the time. How do I know if an AI benchmark score is contaminated? Check whether the benchmark questions have ever been publicly posted. Public questions, solutions, and leaderboard discussions eventually seep into training corpora; the exam starts measuring recognition as much as generalization. Independent harnesses - EleutherAI's lm-eval-harness, Stanford's HELM, OpenAI's simple-evals - provide a path to reproducibility. If a vendor's launch post does not link to an independent reproduction, treat the number as unverified. Which AI leaderboard should I use for model selection in 2026? In 2026, the leaderboard you should care about depends on what you are shipping. For agent reliability and code: SWE-bench Verified and Aider polyglot. For hard reasoning: GPQA Diamond and AIME. For perceived quality on real prompts: Arena. For open-weight model selection: the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. None replaces an eval on your actual task. Can benchmark scores be gamed without cheating? Yes, structurally. Agent benchmarks benchmark a model x scaffold x token-budget product, and small scaffold choices can multiply costs 10x. A team with more inference budget can publish higher scores without the underlying model being better. Whoever can pay for the evaluation gets to write the leaderboard. Or just watch me work Point me at your website. I will read up on your business and come back with what I would run for you. No account, no card, about a minute. I only read what is public. Nothing is saved to your name until you say so.

VocoLife
Aug 6th, 2026
Epoch AI: AI stuck at 59% on new Game Puzzles.

Epoch AI: AI stuck at 59% on new Game Puzzles. 4h ago · 0:00 listen · Source: Crypto Briefing Summary. Epoch AI has launched new game puzzle benchmarks, and AI models are currently stuck at 59% on one of the tests. These benchmarks, called Mystery Game Puzzles and Chess Puzzles, challenge AI's reasoning abilities. On the Mystery Game Puzzles, the top score achieved by any model is 59%. Open-weight models perform lower, maxing out at 38%. What's interesting is that the AI doesn't even know which game it's playing in the mystery variant, preventing it from relying on memorized patterns. The Chess Puzzles show some improvement. While a model scored 37% at launch, newer models have pushed that to 54%. This highlights a difference between playing chess with a search engine and reasoning through new situations. The bottom line is that these tests are designed to measure genuine spatial reasoning and planning, not just pattern recognition. This matters because it reveals current limitations in AI's ability to reason in novel situations. This is an AI-generated audio summary. Always check the original source for complete reporting.

4sysops
Jun 26th, 2026
MirrorCode benchmark reveals the high costs and limits of AI software engineering.

MirrorCode benchmark reveals the high costs and limits of AI software engineering. By IT News / Fri, Jun 26 2026 / Epoch AI has introduced MirrorCode, a new benchmark designed to evaluate whether AI models can reconstruct entire software programs without seeing the original source code. This test requires models to recreate complex codebases based only on high-level descriptions and functional requirements. While current models show promise in smaller tasks, the benchmark highlights significant performance gaps when dealing with large-scale, intricate software architectures. Claude 3.5 Sonnet currently leads the leaderboard by successfully rebuilding a 16,000-line toolkit in approximately 14 hours. However, the most difficult challenges in the benchmark remain unsolved even by the most advanced models available today. One specific attempt to solve a complex task resulted in an AI agent programming continuously for 19 days before ultimately failing to complete the objective. The financial cost of these long-running autonomous sessions is substantial, with the 19-day attempt incurring $2,600 in API fees. These results suggest that while AI can accelerate routine coding tasks, it still struggles with the long-term reasoning required for massive software projects. For infrastructure and systems management, this underscores the current limitations of relying on fully autonomous AI agents for complex development cycles.

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