Lake Chad is gaining water and that reshapes the irrigation agenda. IWMI estimates targeted irrigation investments around a recovering Lake Chad, could feed more than 12 million people and unlock billions in economic gains. For decades, Lake Chad has been portrayed as a symbol of environmental collapse: a once-vast lake that lost around 90% of its open-water area between the 1960s and the 1990s. Climate variability and growing irrigation withdrawals were widely blamed for its decline, and images of a disappearing lake became shorthand for climate crisis in the Sahel region - which links the Sahara Desert to the savannas of the South. International Water Management Institute (IWMI) research, tracking the lake by satellite every quarter from 2000 to 2025, tells a different story. Lake Chad is not disappearing. It is gaining water and has been for years. For nearly 30 million people who depend on the basin's waters for farming, fishing and daily life, these findings have deep implications. Through its work, conducted in partnership with the World Bank, IWMI found that the lake's open-water area more than doubled. Rising from about 3,600 square kilometers (km[2]) in 2012 to over 8,300 km^2 in 2025. The rebound is clearest in the lake's northern pool, which had almost vanished by 2012, and has since expanded so markedly that it now covers a greater area than the southern pool, though it remains shallow. IWMI noticed that stronger inflows from the Komadugu-Yobe river system have been returning open water to the northern basin since 2019. Just as important is how the lake behaves. IWMI also observed that, rather than uniformly shrinking or growing, Lake Chad is best understood as a shifting mosaic of open water, wetlands and vegetation that expand and contract from year to year. Much of what was once read as "disappearance" was in fact water moving between these states, a dynamic wetland system, not a dying one. So, what changed? Rain, mostly. Its analysis shows that across the entire basin, annual rainfall rose by roughly 100 mm, or about 16% between 2000 and 2020. The river basins that feed the lake gained even more, with the Komadugu-Yobe up nearly 18% and the Chari-Logone increasing by around 11%. A second, smaller factor points in the same direction. Since 2014, political insecurity in the Komadugu-Yobe basin has forced some irrigation schemes to be abandoned, cutting local water withdrawals and leaving more water in the river, that then flow into the northern basin. The lake's recent recovery may be more than a temporary fluctuation. Using five downscaled climate models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), IWMI assessed how temperature, rainfall and river flows could change across the basin in the coming decades. The models indicate that both temperatures and rainfall are likely to increase. Importantly, the projected rise in rainfall is expected to outweigh the additional water lost through evaporation, potentially resulting in greater river discharge into Lake Chad. The lake's recovery since 2019 is consistent with this long-term climate signals. However, considerable uncertainty remains in the projections. The models agree on direction but diverge on the magnitude and timing of change so these outlooks should be read with caution. What is Lake Chad's irrigation potential? The Lake Chad Basin is shared among six countries - Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Libya, Niger and Nigeria. The people of each country depend on the basin for water, farming, fishing and other livelihoods. Yet, according to its research less than 6% of the basin's land with potential for cultivation is currently irrigated. Greater water availability could support agricultural production, strengthen food security and create new economic opportunities. But expanding irrigation without considering the needs of the wider basin could undermine the environmental flows on which Lake Chad depends. To help answer that question, IWMI carried out an integrated analysis of the basin's irrigation potential, assessing not only how much irrigation could be developed, but where it can be developed sustainably and where it cannot. The assessment examines three pathways: rehabilitating and expanding existing public schemes; Farmer-Led Irrigation Development (FLID) which is typically powered by groundwater; and combinations of the two. The analysis estimated this potential country by country. IWMI quantified that around 33 million hectares of land had potential for groundwater-fed FLID, while around six million hectares had potential to be irrigated by surface-water schemes. However, a key finding was that while tens of millions of hectares are in principle suitable for irrigation, only a fraction can be developed sustainably within available water budget limits under climate change. Realistically, with strategic investments, the six countries could potentially expand irrigated agriculture by around one million hectares. But success depends on where water resources, land conditions and local communities are best positioned to make irrigation most likely to succeed. FLID can expand quickly and inclusively, but groundwater is the catch: across all six countries, aquifer abstraction is essentially unmonitored. Regional coordination will determine what happens next. More water does not automatically lead to sustainable development. The Lake Chad Basin is shared, which means irrigation expansion in one location can affect water availability, ecosystems and livelihoods elsewhere. Countries therefore need shared information, joint monitoring and investment plans that consider this transboundary basin as a connected system. This irrigation assessment by IWMI estimates that well-targeted investment could feed more than 12 million people and generate tens of billions of dollars in economic benefits. Irrigation development must go hand in hand with flood-management measures. A wetter future is also likely to be a more flood-prone one, so new infrastructure should be designed to cope with higher flows and periodic flooding. Building on the long-standing role of the Lake Chad Basin Commission, member countries can strengthen joint monitoring, improve data sharing and, where appropriate, revisit regional water-allocation frameworks such as the Water Charter. Lake Chad's revival is real, and the science is now clear enough to plan around. The central question is no longer simply whether Lake Chad is disappearing. It is whether the countries sharing its waters can turn its recovery into lasting food security, livelihoods and resilience without placing the lake itself at risk. Editor's note: This blog draws on findings from an unpublished research study conducted by IWMI and partners

One phone call helps Ghana's smallholder farmers access irrigation. The IRRILINE advisory service, co-created by IWMI and Farmerline, is live in Ghana and starts just by dialling 399. For most smallholder farmers in northern Ghana, investing in irrigation means confronting a series of difficult questions: Is my land even suitable? Which pump should I buy? How do I finance it? Until now, there was no single service to answer them. That changes with the launch of IRRILINE. Farmers across Ghana can now call 399 and select option four to access a free, tailored irrigation advisory service, available in local languages, backed by science and connected to financing options. How does IRRRILINE work in practice? Through a single call, farmers get access to a site-specific irrigation plan, cost estimate and asset finance opportunities. The video below explains, in just over two minutes, what exactly the service offers. Turning a market gap into a practical service. Ghana has one of the most compelling cases for smallholder irrigation in West Africa. Over 700,000 farmers could benefit from small-scale irrigation, yet only 3% of cultivated land is currently irrigated. The northern regions, where a single rainy season limits farmers to one crop per year, have the highest potential and the greatest need. In some cases, introducing irrigation has allowed farmers to grow two to three additional crops during the dry season, when rainfall alone is insufficient to support cultivation. When the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) began mapping Ghana's irrigation sector in 2022 under the Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) program, a second gap emerged alongside the first: across 92 digital agricultural services surveyed in Africa, not one offered a solution linking irrigation. Thus, the next step was deciding who to build it with. IWMI evaluated 27 organizations across Ghana and West Africa before settling on Farmerline, one of Ghana's largest agritech companies, with over 100,000 registered farmers, a network of 250 field agents and an operational helpdesk already trusted by smallholders for market and financial services. Crucially, Farmerline saw IRRILINE not as a research project to host, but as a new, strategic business model: farmers who irrigate produce more, buy more inputs and generate more off-season supply. The incentives were aligned from day one. A partnership agreement was signed in mid-2023, and the co-design process began in earnest. Co-designing the service. Over the following year, IWMI and Farmerline jointly designed every component of the service. IWMI contributed two core scientific modules: an irrigation suitability model that uses a farmer's location and short survey to assess groundwater depth, soil type, slope and proximity to water sources; and an irrigation advice engine that translates that data into a specific technology recommendation: drip, sprinkler or surface irrigation. Pump sizing and cost estimates are drawn from a live database of Ghanaian suppliers. Farmerline contributed the infrastructure needed to deliver IRRILINE directly to farmers: the 399 helpdesk, a network of field agents, support in 14 local languages and established asset-financing systems through which farmers can access agricultural equipment and inputs on credit. Rather than creating a separate delivery system, IRRILINE was integrated into Farmerline's existing operations, making the service more efficient, practical and sustainable. Throughout the process, digital inclusivity was treated as a design requirement, not an afterthought. IWMI applied its Multidimensional Digital Inclusivity Index (MDII) framework to stress-test whether the service would genuinely reach, for example, women farmers, those with limited formal education and communities in areas with patchy connectivity. Field agents were identified as the critical bridge for those who cannot navigate a phone menu alone. IRRILINE goes live with women farmers. IRRILINE officially launched in Ghana in December 2025. The first users are nine women farmer groups in the north of the country, identified through a competitive accelerator program co-funded by Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) and the World Bank. Farmerline, together with solar irrigation provider Pumptech, was awarded an accelerator grant to support the first wave of deployments covering irrigation assessments, equipment procurement and installation of solar-powered systems. The first six months of operation show the service working as designed. 792 farmers have expressed interest by calling the 399 helpdesk. Of those, 31 were matched to the program based on the suitability criteria, 23 completed "Know Your Customers" checks for Farmerline to learn more about the requestors and conduct a physical farm visit, and 7 now have solar-powered irrigation systems installed. A further 28 farmers have received tailored support or been linked directly to a supplier. After the accelerator program ending, Farmerline reached out to more than 49,000 farmers in Ghana to advertise the IRRILINE service. The demonstration sites will serve as proof of concept for the broader rollout, and as learning grounds for iterating the service. For farmers and organizations looking to explore what irrigation could mean for their land, the entry point is simple: call 399, select option four for irrigation.

From Baku to bankable. How FCDO and IWMI are turning pilots into investment opportunities with international financial institutions in fragile contexts. As the global funding landscape shifts and pilot projects mature, a new challenge emerges: how do successful resilience interventions move from small-scale testing to nationally financed programs? For the United Kingdom's Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) and the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), the Islamic Development Bank Group (IsDB) Annual Meetings and Resilience Dialogues in Baku, Azerbaijan provided an opportunity to test a shared answer to this question. IWMI has led several projects funded by UK International Development that are reaching maturity and looking for pathways to scale. Al Murunah pilots resilient nature-based water solutions (RNBWS) for water and food security in agricultural communities of Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine. Al Murunah+, supports Al Murunah by delivering household- and community-level resilience-building to promote positive gender norms and support the uptake and sustainability of climate adaptation interventions. Jahez builds climate-ready refugee-hosting communities in Jordan through scalable impact-based weather and climate information systems, community-based anticipatory action and RNBWS for disaster risk reduction. Wiqaya pilots RNBWS to mitigate sand and dust storm generation and improve livelihoods equitably in southern Iraq and scale mitigation efforts through capability building, planning and dialogue to leverage national and regional climate finance. As these pilots near completion, and with clear proof of concept established, International Water Management Institute is exploring how to scale the partnerships and evidence-based approaches to cement a legacy that continues to build resilience in fragile contexts. This was the reason IWMI and the FCDO travelled to Baku together, as one delegation, with IWMI serving as the technical and knowledge arm of the FCDO team. Why the Resilience Dialogues matter. As part of their Annual Meetings, IsDB hosted a two-day Resilience Dialogue, which stood out as an excellent opportunity for International Water Management Institute. Ministers, multilateral development banks (MDBs), UN agencies and development partners participated in a South-led discussion on what is required to improve crisis response and support investable resilience programming. Across roundtables on the Sahel, Syria and Horn of Africa, and the launch of IsDB's new "3R Facility" - response, recovery and resilience - two messages rang out clearly: capital is increasingly available, but there remains a shortage of bankable, conflict-sensitive and technically sound projects; and investments in water systems can provide a critical entry point for climate resilience, food security and economic recovery, yet many lack the evidence base and design needed to attract large-scale financing. This gap is exactly where IWMI's projects sit. From evidence to a legacy that scales. Together, IWMI and the FCDO aim to distil outputs and learnings from these projects into synthesized and investment-ready intervention bundles and implementation models that governments, development banks and financiers can adopt, adapt and scale in other fragile and conflict-affected settings. This provides MDBs and climate financiers robust evidence and an implementation blueprint, enabling proven water-centred resilience investments to begin from an advanced starting point. A joint offer, built for new platforms and pipelines. In roundtables and bilateral meetings at Baku, International Water Management Institute tested a shared proposition: whether FCDO's international climate finance, policy, and partnership and convening power, paired with IWMI's research for development and conflict-sensitive design, could create opportunities for development finance institutions to turn resilience priorities into investment-ready pipelines. This offer arrives at the right moment for recent and emerging South-led platforms such as the Baku Hub, IsDB's 3R facility and the Riyadh Global Drought Resilience Partnership. Each requires the kind of investment-ready and rigorously prepared projects that learnings and approaches from projects like ours can inform. Aligning with national and regional ambitions. This work ties together national development and climate adaptation plans, the UK's International Climate Finance Strategy and IWMI's Country and Regional Strategic Roadmaps. Water is a foundational platform globally for food security, jobs and peace. This is the case across Chad and the Sahel, for Syria's early recovery, in Sudan's reconstruction, for Yemen's dam-linked livelihoods and for disaster preparedness in the Horn of Africa. Its engagement in Baku reinforced how IWMI's projects align with these national visions, and how they can be adapted and scaled through local leadership and regional institutions. Looking ahead, together. Baku confirmed something International Water Management Institute already believed: FCDO and IWMI are stronger working together. As its UK International Development funded pilots mature, its shared task is to make sure their evidence and models inform the next investments for high-impact development. It marks a shift in the FCDO-IWMI collaboration: from successful implementation, through strategic reflection, to a future where water security drives inclusive, resilient development at scale. International Water Management Institute leave Baku with a clear path forward and a renewed conviction that when diplomacy, financing, policy, and applied research for development move together and are anchored in local realities, evidence, and knowledge, International Water Management Institute respond to crises and build resilient systems with communities that endure. The UK's International Climate Finance Strategy includes two relevant priorities: mobilizing finance at scale for climate and nature outcomes and accelerating a transition to climate-resilient communities, economies and ecosystems. To deliver on these priorities, its next chapter is not just about sharing lessons; it is to ensure that evidence generated in these projects shapes the next generation of climate resilience investments. Baku demonstrated that demand exists. The task is now to translate evidence into pipelines, pipelines into finance and finance into resilient systems that can better withstand future shocks. International Water Management Institute is excited for what comes next. IWMI and the FCDO will continue turning knowledge into action - driving bankable, impactful investments. Mitchell McTough is a researcher on Water, Conflicts and Resilience at IWMI; Stephen Fragaszy is a researcher and Al Murunah project leader at IWMI, Ranoja Dickowita is an intern with the Water, Climate Change and Resilience team at IWMI; Sawsan Gharaibeh is a regional researcher on Gender and Social Inclusion at IWMI; Vidhisha Samarasekara is the strategic program director on Water, Climate Change and Resilience at IWMI; Katya Nell is the deputy team lead and FCAS Climate Adviser for the MENA Energy, Climate and Environment Team at FCDO; Serena Bashal is the regional lead (Gulf States and Yemen) for MENA Energy, Climate and Environment Team at FCDO.