Joby is still down 56% in 2026: is JOBY stock ready to fly or is this a false start? Joby's FAA certification is entering its final stretch, a defense deal is on deck, and billions sit in the bank. So why does a mounting share count have bears betting this air taxi story stalls before takeoff? This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them. Few air taxi developers have tested investor patience in 2026 like Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY | JOBY Price Prediction). Joby stock is at $5.78, up 9% in afternoon trading after the company's third-quarter report. That rebound still leaves the stock down 56% year to date (YTD). Over the past 52 weeks, Joby has traded between $4.43 and $17.10. The big question is whether Joby is close to commercial launch or still a long way from proving itself, and its latest results give both sides fresh material. Where Joby stands after its Q3 2026 report. Key data−. Previous Close Market Cap Day's Range 52wk Range Dividend Yield Joby reported Q3 2026 results on November 4, and Blade, its passenger air mobility business, did the heavy lifting. Revenue at Joby reached $55.1 million, topping Wall Street's consensus estimate, as Blade flew a record 44,000-plus passengers. On a per-share basis, Joby lost $0.22, smaller than analysts expected and better than the $0.48 loss a year earlier. The bottom line improved more than the business did. Joby's net loss narrowed to $211.8 million from $401.2 million a year earlier, largely because of a $286 million improvement in other income. Stripping out that line, the company's operating loss was still $278.1 million. Looking ahead, Joby raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to $135 million to $140 million from $115 million to $125 million. Joby management expects second-half cash use of $385 million to $415 million, unchanged from its prior forecast. Joby's bull case: certification enters the final stretch. On the November 4 call, CEO JoeBen Bevirt said Joby has completed a wide range of for-credit testing in the fifth and final stage of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) type certification. Bevirt added that Joby expects to finish its own flight tests and have FAA pilots train on its aircraft in the first half of 2027, and the company now has 17 aircraft in production. Chief Policy Officer Greg Bowles described that next phase as one "where the FAA moves from witnessing bench tests and ground tests and starts flying the aircraft itself." Defense adds another leg for Joby. The planned $500 million Resonant Sciences acquisition, expected to close early in 2027, brings a dedicated defense business with more than $100 million in trailing revenue and 40% annual growth. Joby's cash and investments of $2.2 billion at quarter end also give it a healthy buffer. Wall Street's bulls see upside too. H.C. Wainwright keeps a Buy rating and a Street-high $18 price target on Joby. Canaccord Genuity upgraded Joby to Buy while cutting its target to $7 from $11.50. Now available: The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income. Many successful investors eventually reach the same moment. The saving is done, the portfolio is built, and the question quietly changes from how much can I grow this to how much can I take out? Get that second question wrong and decades of good investing can come apart in a handful of years. That is exactly what The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income helps answer. It covers what your retirement could actually cost, which income sources are worth using, and the withdrawal math that decides whether the money lasts. It is free today from Fisher Investments. Read More Here" Joby's bear case: Dilution and a costly runway. Dilution is central to the Joby bear case. Joby's share count climbed from 784.2 million at the end of 2024 to 1.01 billion at September 30. A $750 million at-the-market stock program, set up August 11, produced $128 million in net proceeds for the company in Q3. Analysts expect a large free cash flow burn for Joby in 2027, on top of the Resonant purchase. Barclays rates Joby Underweight with a $4 price target, questioning the factory can keep up. Needham cut its Joby target to $10 from $15, and the average analyst target has fallen over the past year. Revenue at Joby remains small next to its $5.76 billion market value. Certification schedules can slip, and Bowles acknowledged on the call that there are no guarantees because Joby is certifying a new aircraft category. How Joby stacks up against Archer and EHang. Joby's decline sits between those of its two closest air taxi peers. By comparison, Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR) stock is down 42% YTD to $4.34, a smaller decline than Joby's. Meanwhile, EHang Holdings (NASDAQ:EH) stock is down 71% YTD to $3.84 per American depositary share. Previous Close Market Cap Day's Range 52wk Range Dividend Yield Previous Close Market Cap Day's Range 52wk Range Dividend Yield Each company is taking a different path to market. Vertical integration defines Joby, which builds its aircraft in-house and owns Blade for passenger revenue and customer relationships ahead of its air taxi launch. Archer is pairing its Midnight air taxi with defense and artificial intelligence (AI) work, and it agreed to acquire Wisk, Insitu and SkyGrid from Boeing (NYSE:BA). In China, EHang builds pilotless EH216 aircraft and runs drone light shows, though it withdrew its 2026 revenue guidance after a late-June accident involving another company's piloted aircraft led regulators to slow approvals. Joby's path to FAA flight tests and its Dilution risk. A key question for Joby is whether FAA pilots begin flying its aircraft for credit, a step management expects to start in the first half of 2027. Success there could move the company into the last major step before a type certificate, and the Resonant deal might add defense revenue along the way. Dilution remains the main offset, since any delay could mean more stock sales to fund the operating loss. Joby offers a real path to commercial service, along with a real chance of further share issuance, and whether the stock is ready to fly or facing a false start is a call each reader will need to make. The timing of Joby's FAA flight tests may be the key variable for the stock from here. Released: The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income. (Sponsor) Most people spend their entire working lives focusing on one thing: growing a pile of money. Then they retire and discover the skill they actually need is close to the opposite. Turning that pile into steady income, year after year, through good markets and bad, without ever running out. 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Flying cars are HERE: Joby Aviation on eVTOL revolution [2025 outlook]. · Friday, November 06, 2026 Joby Aviation's Chief Policy Officer, Greg Bowles, discusses the exciting future of eVTOLs (electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft). Learn how these 'flying cars' are set to transform urban air mobility, logistics, and daily commuting. From overcoming regulatory hurdles with the FAA to strategic partnerships and manufacturing scale, Joby is leading the charge in a new era of aviation. Discover their plans for initial market launches in cities like New York, Florida, and Texas, and how they're addressing safety, noise, and public acceptance. Joby Aviation plans to launch commercial eVTOL service in New York City, Florida, and Texas as its initial markets under the federal eVTOL Integrated Pilot Program (EIPP), with flying operations planned for the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, the company's Chief Policy Officer said in a recent interview. The disclosure signals that the decade-long certification effort is entering its final stretch, with infrastructure, pilot training, and airspace frameworks largely in place. The company entered formal FAA certification in 2018 and is now approaching type certification for its six-propeller, electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft. Under the EIPP executive order, Joby is permitted to conduct limited commercial operations in key states ahead of full type certification. Florida was selected as one of the first EIPP states, and Joby marked the milestone last week by recreating the world's first commercial flight - the 1914 St. Petersburg-to-Tampa route - using its own aircraft. The vehicle currently in testing targets routes up to 100 miles. To keep fares competitive, Joby is prioritizing high-density, bidirectional corridors that minimize empty "deadhead" legs. Routes such as JFK to Manhattan - currently served by Blade Air Mobility, which Joby acquired - take roughly seven minutes and are priced from $249. Joby said it plans to begin replacing Blade's existing helicopter trips with Joby aircraft in the coming year. "As we get rid of the current constraint for vertical lift, which is noise - it comes to supply chain. And we gotta turn the knob on manufacturing," said Greg Bowles, Joby's Chief Policy Officer. The aircraft's six-propeller architecture is central to both its safety case and its noise profile. Each of the six motor stations is dual-redundant, meaning a complete propeller failure requires two independent failures at a single station. In a hover scenario with one station lost, the aircraft can compensate by adjusting the diagonal motor and maintaining controlled flight on the remaining four. Bowles said the quiet acoustic signature - a deliberate design outcome of using multiple smaller electric motors rather than a single large rotor - is critical to community acceptance and regulatory approval. On airspace integration, Joby cited its acquisition of autonomous flight company X-Wing, which has developed camera, microphone, and LiDAR systems to detect other aircraft and drones. The company said it recently completed the world's first coast-to-coast autonomous flight series with a large aircraft and announced a new set of defense contracts with the Air Force the day prior to the interview. Bowles noted that the FAA's new digital air traffic control system - the Brand New Air Traffic Control System (BNACCS) - replaces analog infrastructure that had relied on eBay-sourced components, and will enable smarter airspace management for eVTOL operations. Bowles expressed confidence that broad public access to Joby's service will come well before 2035, though he stopped short of a firm date. He pointed to a landing demonstration at Toyota's North American headquarters in Plano, Texas - touching down at half-court on a basketball court with landowner permission - as evidence that the aircraft requires minimal ground infrastructure. Toyota is listed as one of Joby's key partners. Manufacturing scale, he said, is now the primary variable determining how quickly the service can expand beyond its initial dense urban markets. * Joby plans initial commercial eVTOL service in New York, Florida, and Texas under the federal EIPP, with operations targeted for the 2028 LA Olympics. * The company will begin replacing Blade Air Mobility's helicopter routes - such as JFK to Manhattan, priced from $249 - with Joby aircraft in the coming year. * Manufacturing scale, not certification or airspace, is now Joby's binding constraint to expanding service beyond high-density urban corridors. This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.