Goldman Sachs reiterates Opendoor stock Sell rating on margin pressure. Goldman Sachs kept a Sell rating and $1 target on Opendoor after its contribution margin fell to 3.3% and its adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $31 million in the third quarter. Goldman Sachs reiterated a Sell rating and $1.00 price target on Opendoor Technologies (NASDAQ:OPEN) as weaker unit economics offset strong acquisition growth. The company sold 2,728 homes in the third quarter of 2026, purchased 4,865 homes, and signed more than 7,000 acquisition contracts, driving market share to more than 0.5% of U.S. real estate, more than four times year-ago levels. Homes acquired in the spring are now being sold into a materially weaker housing market, which drove contribution margin down to 3.3% from 5.1% expected by Goldman Sachs and 3.7% consensus. The adjusted EBITDA loss increased to $31 million from $4 million in the second quarter of 2026, while listed inventory aged more than 120 days increased to 18% from 9%. Management continues to prioritize clearing inventory over protecting near-term margins and expects contribution margin to decline again in the fourth quarter of 2026, with the remaining spring vintages continuing to pressure results into the first quarter of 2027. The deteriorating fundamentals have hammered the stock, which has plunged 67% over the past six months and trades at $1.79, near Goldman's $1 target. Opendoor guided to at least 40% year-over-year revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 2026, but expects a $70 million to $85 million adjusted EBITDA loss given further contribution margin pressure, higher marketing spend, and increased holding costs. The company is increasing fourth-quarter marketing to approximately $20 million from $5 million in the third quarter of 2026 as it continues to rebuild inventory. Management acknowledged it is behind schedule on both its prior 12-month go-forward adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income profitability targets. Goldman Sachs remains cautious on whether strong acquisition growth, capital-light products, and improving operating efficiency can translate into sustainable profitability.

Opendoor's Q3: 4x the home buys, thinner margins. The company's margins and Q4 outlook suggest the hard part is still ahead Today, November 06, 2026 Opendoor bought 4,865 homes in the third quarter, more than four times the 1,169 it bought a year earlier. That's the clearest sign yet that CEO Kaz Nejatian's "Opendoor 2.0" overhaul is bringing sellers back. Selling those homes is proving harder. The iBuyer reported revenue of $1.02 billion for the quarter ended Sept. 30, up 12 percent year over year and 16 percent from the second quarter. But gross margin fell to 3.7 percent from 7.2 percent a year ago, and net loss widened to $218 million from $90 million. Opendoor ended the quarter holding 7,596 homes worth $2.57 billion. A year earlier, it held 3,139 homes. Sellers are coming back. The acquisition surge marks a turnaround for a company that went looking for a new CEO in August 2025, when Carrie Wheeler resigned. A month later, it hired Nejatian, formerly of Shopify. Opendoor says its signed acquisitions made up an estimated 0.56 percent of its addressable U.S. market in Q3, up from 0.13 percent a year earlier. Much of that growth came from Cash Now, More Later, a product Opendoor says requires less capital upfront per home. It accounted for more purchases in Q3 than all of Opendoor's products combined in the same quarter last year. "A year ago, conventional wisdom was that Opendoor couldn't grow without overpaying, couldn't operate more efficiently and couldn't use less capital per acquisition," Nejatian said. "Our progress tells a different story." Opendoor also reported efficiency gains over the trailing 12 months. Marketing expense per acquired home fell 57 percent, to $2,800 from $6,500. Operations expense per acquired home fell 36 percent, to $4,000 from $6,300. Some of that is simple math, since per-home costs drop as volume climbs. Fixed operating expenses rose slightly, to $37 million from $35 million in Q2. The resale test. Resale is lagging well behind acquisitions. Opendoor sold 2,728 homes in Q3, up just 6 percent from 2,568 a year earlier, while purchases rose 316 percent. The company lists aging inventory under its progress column. Homes listed for more than 120 days made up 18 percent of listed inventory, down from 51 percent a year earlier and below the overall market's 30 percent. But that share doubled from 9 percent in Q2. Mortgage originations grew more than 400 percent from the prior quarter, though Opendoor didn't disclose the base. Opendoor is still targeting positive adjusted net income by the end of 2026, measured on a 12-month forward basis. The company acknowledged that it is "currently behind" and blamed a slower market. Its fourth-quarter outlook reflects that. Opendoor expects revenue to grow at least 40 percent year over year. It also expects contribution profit dollars to decline from Q3 and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $70 million to $85 million, compared with a $31 million loss in Q3. Nejatian framed resale as the next test. "We've shown what focused execution can do for our seller funnel and our efficiency," he said. "We're betting on ourselves to deliver the same change in resale."

Opendoor missed Wall Street's third-quarter revenue expectations, even as sales rose 11.7% year on year to $1.02 billion. Analysts had expected $1.07 billion. The real estate technology company reported a loss of $0.23 per share, against forecasts of a $0.17 loss. Free cash flow was negative $836 million, compared with positive $432 million a year earlier. Opendoor guided fourth-quarter revenue of $1.03 billion, below the consensus estimate of $1.11 billion. Its adjusted EBITDA guidance of $77.5 million at the midpoint beat expectations of negative $16.66 million. Homes sold rose by 160 year on year. Shares were flat at $1.78, giving the company a market capitalisation of $1.92 billion.