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Energy Transfer's free cash flow nearly vanished in Q4. Six months later, it doubled. Here's what's actually driving it. Last updated Sep 17, 2026 Key Takeaways. * Energy Transfer (ET) posted Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA of roughly $5.1 billion, up from $3.9 billion a year earlier, and raised full year guidance to $18.8 billion to $19.1 billion, its second upward revision this year. * Management told analysts on the Q2 call that return thresholds on new growth projects are rising, not falling, even as organic capital spending climbs to $5.6 billion to $5.9 billion in 2026 and is expected to stay above $5 billion a year through 2029. * TIKR data back that claim, for now. Return on Capital rose from 7.55% at year end 2025 to 11.29% by June 2026, Net Debt to EBITDA fell from 4.41x to 3.33x over the same stretch, and free cash flow swung from barely covering dividends in Q4 2025 to more than double covering them by Q2 2026. * Management is explicit that part of the beat came from commodity volatility it is not forecasting to repeat in the back half of 2026, and the heaviest, not yet earning phases of Desert Southwest and other projects are still years away. Energy Transfer's Pipeline Network Sits Right Under the Data Center Boom. Energy Transfer (ET) built most of its footprint decades before anyone was sizing power lines for AI training clusters. Co-CEO Marshall McCrea made the point plainly on the Q2 earnings call: when data center site selection started a few years ago, "we looked at the map and then we looked at where a lot of the proposed data centers were going and they were on top of our pipeline." That is a convenient accident, but the company has spent the past two years converting it into contracted demand. The clearest example is the Hugh Brinson Pipeline, which entered commercial service during the quarter and is running ahead of its own construction schedule, with full Phase 1 capacity of 1.5 billion cubic feet a day expected by September 1, 2026. Shippers on that line include Florida utilities and Texas data center and power customers, several of whom have already added incremental volume to their contracts. Management also flagged a structural edge: most of its power plant and data center deals are behind the meter, meaning those customers generate their own electricity on site rather than waiting in line for a grid interconnection. That matters because interconnection queues, not gas supply, are the bottleneck slowing several competing power projects nationally. Desert Southwest, the larger and later pipeline aimed at Arizona and New Mexico power demand, is moving through FERC scoping meetings and is still targeted for the back half of 2029. Mustang Draw II, a Permian processing expansion, and Frac IX, a new fractionator at Mont Belvieu, are both due late in 2026 but will contribute only marginally to this year's results. In other words, most of the growth story is still ahead of the company, not behind it. The Numbers Start Backing Up the Pitch. That framing would be easy to wave off as guidance-speak if the return data did not move with it. Energy Transfer's Return on Capital sat in a narrow 7.5% to 9% band for six straight quarters through late 2025, then jumped to 9.42% in the first quarter of 2026 and 11.29% in the second, its highest reading in the two year period. Leverage moved the same direction. Net Debt to EBITDA had drifted up to 4.41x at the end of 2025, near the top of management's stated 4x to 4.5x target, then fell to 3.80x and 3.33x over the next two quarters, even as the company priced $3.0 billion of senior notes in January to keep funding its capital program. Free cash flow tells the sharpest version of the story. It nearly cratered in the fourth quarter of 2025, when capital expenditure spiked to roughly $1.95 billion against operating cash flow of $1.90 billion, essentially wiping out the cushion above that quarter's dividend payment. By the second quarter of 2026, free cash flow reached about $2.71 billion against a dividend of a similar size to prior quarters, comfortably more than double coverage. What Energy Transfer's Improvement Isn't Proof Of Yet. CFO Dylan Bramhall was careful on the call to separate the base business from the tailwind. He told analysts the company does not have "much of" the wider commodity spreads and price swings from the first half of 2026 built into its second half plan, and that additional volatility would be what pushes results toward the high end of guidance rather than the assumed case. Record NGL export premiums, blending margins, and crude market arbitrage all contributed materially to the quarter, and none of those are contracted, repeatable revenue. The 2025 trough is also a reminder that the current run of strong quarters followed a period when leverage crept toward its ceiling and free cash flow briefly stopped covering the distribution. Two strong quarters do not erase that pattern; they interrupt it. Meanwhile, the company's most capital intensive, longest dated projects, Desert Southwest and the still unresolved MLO2 pipeline tied up in Canadian regulatory negotiations, have not yet started contributing to EBITDA and will keep absorbing capital for years before they do. Co-CEO Marshall McCrea's planned retirement by the end of 2026 also hands sole leadership to Thomas Long during the stretch when Desert Southwest execution matters most. The Thesis Depends on the Next Two Quarters, Not the Last Two. The evidence so far supports a specific, narrower claim than "data centers will drive Energy Transfer higher": the company's most recent capital has generated better returns than its 2025 vintage did, and it financed that growth without breaching its own leverage ceiling. That is a meaningfully different claim from saying the trend is now durable. The honest read is that Energy Transfer converted a real structural advantage, gas infrastructure already positioned under demand growth, into two quarters of standout returns that were flattered by volatility management itself says will not repeat. The metric worth watching is whether Return on Capital and free cash flow coverage hold near their second quarter levels once Mustang Draw II and Frac IX ramp without the extra market volatility, and once the July 2026 junior subordinated notes start adding interest expense without a matching offsetting boost from trading conditions. If leverage stays under 4x and coverage stays above the roughly 2x seen in the second quarter through the back half of 2026, the return improvement will look structural. If it slides back toward the 2025 range once the noisier commodity backdrop fades, the current spike will look more like a favorable quarter than a new baseline. Should You Invest in Energy Transfer LP? The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question. Pull up ET stock and you'll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down. You can build a free watchlist to track Energy Transfer LP alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself. Looking for New Opportunities? * See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money. * Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR's all-in-one, easy-to-use platform. * The more rocks you overturn... the more opportunities you'll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR. Disclaimer: Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or its content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. TIKR create its content based on TIKR Terminal's investment data and analysts' estimates. Its analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing! Table of Contents * Key Takeaways * Energy Transfer's Pipeline Network Sits Right Under the Data Center Boom * The Numbers Start Backing Up the Pitch * What Energy Transfer's Improvement Isn't Proof Of Yet * The Thesis Depends on the Next Two Quarters, Not the Last Two * Should You Invest in Energy Transfer LP? * Looking for New Opportunities? * Disclaimer: General Investing Earnings Updates Join thousands of investors worldwide who use TIKR to supercharge their investment analysis.

Energy Transfer/Sunoco Foundation's $200,000 grant expands commitment to North Texas families facing hunger. Funding and volunteer support accelerate North Texas Food Bank's effort to meet rising hunger needs across the region. Dallas, TX, Sept. 16, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) - The North Texas Food Bank (NTFB) received a $200,000 grant from the Energy Transfer/Sunoco Foundation, continuing a long-standing partnership dedicated to reducing food insecurity across the region. Energy Transfer was recently honored as Corporation of the Year at NTFB's 19th Annual Golden Fork Awards, recognizing 14 years of partnership and nearly 4.5 million meals provided to children, seniors, and families experiencing hunger in North Texas. The company's support has surpassed $1.5 million and includes sponsoring three food delivery trucks. In 2025, Energy Transfer also contributed an additional $50,000 to support families affected by the government shutdown, and employees regularly volunteer in NTFB's warehouse. "Our team believes deeply in showing up for the communities where we live and work," said Tom Long, co-Chief Executive Officer of Energy Transfer. "Food is the most basic building block for a healthy, stable life. When families don't have to worry about their next meal, everything else becomes more possible. Supporting the North Texas Food Bank is one of the most meaningful ways we can help strengthen our community, and we're proud to stand alongside them year after year." "The Energy Transfer/Sunoco Foundation continues to be a powerful force for good in North Texas," said Trisha Cunningham, President and CEO of the North Texas Food Bank. "Their generosity fuels our ability to reach more families, and their hands-on involvement shows what true partnership looks like. When organizations step forward with this level of commitment, it creates real momentum toward a hunger-free community." The need for food assistance remains significant. A recent Feeding America study found that Texas has the largest population of food-insecure individuals in the nation, and the Dallas-Fort Worth area ranks fourth among U.S. metro areas for food insecurity. Within NTFB's 12-county service area, approximately 800,000 neighbors, including more than 290,000 children, face hunger. Mackie McCrea, co-Chief Executive Officer at Energy Transfer, noted that addressing food insecurity will remain a priority for the company. "When people have access to food, they have the foundation to learn, work, and care for their families. I'm incredibly proud of our employees who give their time and energy to support this mission. Their enthusiasm reminds me that compassion is contagious," said McCrea. About North Texas Food Bank North Texas Food Bank (NTFB) is a leading nonprofit organization that fights hunger and provides children, seniors and families in North Texas access to nutritious food. For over 40 years, we have been at the forefront of hunger relief, committed to ensuring that no one in our community lacks access to healthy food. Our extensive network of 500 food pantries and organizations, volunteers, and donors enables us to deliver more than 141 million meals last year to those in need. Beyond just addressing hunger, we focus on nourishing lives by offering nutrition education, investing in our network partners, innovating solutions to eliminate hunger and advocating for policies that tackle the root causes of food insecurity. Our dedication to excellence is reflected in our 4-star rating from Charity Navigator, highlighting our strong governance, integrity, and financial stability. As a proud member of Feeding America, the nation's largest hunger relief network, we are committed to ensuring everyone in North Texas has the nourishment needed to lead a healthy and fulfilling life. For more information, visit http://www.ntfb.org/ or connect with us on social media @NorthTexasFoodBank. About Energy Transfer Energy Transfer is one of the largest energy infrastructure companies in North America specializing in the transportation, storage and terminalling of natural gas, natural gas liquids, crude oil and refined products. The company has more than 140,000 miles of pipelines and related assets traversing 44 states with international offices in Shanghai and Panama City, Panama. Attachments

Kelcy Warren voices confidence in oil and gas future. While much of the public conversation around energy focuses on wind farms, solar panels and battery storage, Kelcy Warren used a recent interview to make the case that oil and gas are not going anywhere. The Energy Transfer executive chairman offered his view during a Hart Energy LIVE conversation tied to the company's Houston based 50th anniversary Hall of Fame event. A Blunt Take on a Familiar Debate Warren was asked what advice he had for young people following the energy business, and he used the question to address a broader argument he clearly hears often. He told Hart Energy staff member Jordan Soto that claims about the industry quietly transitioning away from oil and gas amount to nonsense, and he encouraged readers not to accept that framing at face value. Kelcy Warren's answer carried the tone of someone who has fielded the same question many times and grown tired of hedged responses to it. Betting on Continuity Rather than describing a company adjusting to outside pressure, Warren described one intent on continuing much as it always has. He said Energy Transfer will not run from criticism aimed at fossil fuels, choosing instead to keep its focus on the business it already knows well. Kelcy Warren framed that steadiness as an advantage rather than a liability, suggesting that companies chasing every shift in public sentiment lose sight of what has made them successful. His comments landed at an event meant to celebrate fifty years of energy coverage, giving them added weight as a statement about where the industry, and his corner of it in particular, expects to stand for years to come. It was a short answer, but one delivered with the kind of certainty that has defined much of his long career running pipeline infrastructure across the country. See related link for more information.