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Moderna jumps 4% despite William Blair downgrade on valuation; Novavax and BioNTech edge higher. Moderna stock is surging even after an analyst cited its 636% yearly gain as reason enough to step back, and the real question is whether Wall Street is pricing in a cancer breakthrough that has yet to prove itself outside... Shrugging off a valuation downgrade, Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA | MRNA Price Prediction) is climbing as investors weigh strong cancer vaccine data against a share price that already reflects big expectations. Moderna stock stands at $217, up 4% this morning. Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX) stock is at $10.30, up 2%. At the same time, BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) stock is at $88, up 0.6%. Why William Blair downgraded Moderna after strong melanoma data. Key data−. Previous Close Market Cap Day's Range 52wk Range Dividend Yield William Blair downgraded Moderna to Market Perform from Outperform on October 27, citing valuation after a 636% gain year to date. Analyst Myles Minter sees 70% to 75% odds of success. He said Moderna's share price implies that probability across expanded oncology indications, while the firm models $5.4 billion in peak melanoma sales for intismeran, shared equally by Moderna and Merck (NYSE:MRK). That leaves the firm's net present value estimate only slightly above Moderna's market value, though the analyst acknowledged that interim data for intismeran with Merck's Keytruda in adjuvant melanoma supports a potential new standard of care. The Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial is from Moderna and Merck. Presented at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) 2026 congress and accepted for publication in The New England Journal of Medicine, it showed the combination cut the risk of return or death by 42% versus Keytruda alone. Moderna and Merck's treatment also lowered the risk of distant metastasis or death by 38% after a median follow-up of 24.6 months. Patients on that treatment posted two-year recurrence-free survival of 82.2%, compared with 70% for Keytruda alone in the Moderna and Merck study. Those results surfaced on social media on October 22 before their formal release, drawing early attention to Moderna stock. Today's gain is holding up despite the downgrade. Moderna moves apart from its vaccine peers. Oncology now drives how Moderna trades, even as its approved respiratory vaccines, including Spikevax and mRESVIA, remain tied to seasonal demand, and the debate centers on whether intismeran, an individualized neoantigen therapy, can extend beyond melanoma into lung, renal and bladder cancers. Colder, lower-mutation tumors carry biological and clinical risk for that approach, and a Phase 2 INTERPATH-004 trial in renal cell carcinoma, expected to read out in late 2026 or 2027, is the key binary test for the company. Lung and bladder cancers, where checkpoint inhibitors already work, may be friendlier ground for Moderna than pancreatic or gastric tumors. Free Report, Just Released Why Didn't MRNA Make The Top 10 List? 24/7 Wall St has helped investors make money for over two decades, and our top analysts just finished ranking the definitive Top 10 Stocks To Buy Now. Not the ten biggest companies. Not the ten everyone is arguing about. The ten best stocks to buy right now. And MRNA didn't make the cut! The report is free, and you can see why we think each stock is a top investment today. Manufacturing is the other open question for Moderna. Panmure Liberum noted intismeran takes approximately six to eight weeks to make per patient. The firm argued the data supports the off-the-shelf DNA vaccine approach of U.K.-listed Scancell, which avoids patient-specific manufacturing. Moderna has been establishing capacity in Massachusetts with Merck for a potential intismeran launch. Each of Moderna's closest vaccine peers runs a different business model. Novavax sells a protein-based COVID vaccine and increasingly makes licensing and royalty income from its Matrix-M adjuvant, while BioNTech, which co-developed the Comirnaty COVID vaccine with Pfizer, is shifting hard into cancer drugs. Pfizer stock is at $30, down 0.7%. Year to date, Novavax is up 53%, far behind Moderna's surge, while BioNTech is down 8% over the same stretch and Pfizer is up 25%. That quiet trade among vaccine makers suggests Moderna is being valued on its cancer pipeline. What comes next for Moderna's cancer vaccine push. Moderna now faces the question of whether regulatory filings in adjuvant melanoma lead to an approval with broad scope. Moderna's renal cell carcinoma readout could then show whether intismeran works beyond melanoma. Watch for evidence that Moderna can scale individualized manufacturing, including at an upcoming tour of its facility in Marlborough, Massachusetts. Supporters can cite peer-reviewed data and a path toward a potential new standard of care in melanoma for Moderna. On the other hand, the share price may already price in success well beyond melanoma, and more analysts could echo the valuation downgrade. Strong renal results could ease that concern, while a miss could undercut the expanded-indication case. A cautious approach could make sense while the market waits for intismeran's renal cancer readout. Got $1,000? Before you buy MRNA, read this. If you have cash sitting in your account right now, give this two minutes. After more than two decades of helping investors beat the market, our top analysts at 24/7 Wall St. put together a definitive report on the Top 10 Stocks To Buy Today. And MRNA wasn't one of them. They combed the entire market. It's not 10 ideas, not 10 stocks everyone is talking about, it's what their research points to as the 10 best stocks to buy right now, and it's free. Read more here and see which stocks made the list ->> David Moadel David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk.His work has appeared in The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, U.S. News & World Report, TipRanks, ValueWalk, Benzinga, Market Realist, TalkMarkets, Finmasters, 24/7 Wall St., and others.With a master's degree in education, David has taught at the elementary, high school, and college levels. That teaching background shapes his writing style: clear, educational, and practical. David has also built a loyal social-media audience by providing trustworthy financial content on YouTube, X/Twitter, and StockTwits.

Three cancer drug trials drew attention at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) meeting, with investors and analysts weighing the results. Moderna and Merck's vaccine intismeran autogene cut the relative risk of melanoma recurrence or death by 42% in a Phase 3 trial. Moderna's shares have still fallen by double digits since the results leaked early, as investors question its valuation and the vaccine's manufacturing and commercial potential. Roche's divarasib reduced the risk of death or disease progression by 42% in KRAS G12C lung cancer, beating Krazati and Lumakras. Patients lived a median of about 18 months, versus a year. Roche raised its peak sales forecast from 3.6 billion Swiss francs to 3 billion. Amgen's Imdelltra, combined with Imfinzi, cut the risk of death by 58% in small cell lung cancer. Median survival was 21.1 months, against 12.7 months for Imfinzi alone.

Moderna's stock just stumbled. Is it a buy on the dip? The stock fell 17% in one trading session. By Adria Cimino - Oct 23, 2026 at 9:55AM EST Key points. * Moderna has soared this year amid optimism about its personalized cancer vaccine candidate. * Investors are closely following data from that candidate's phase 3 trial. * Motley Fool Issues Rare "Total Conviction" Buy Alert" You may know the name Moderna (MRNA -1.25%) very well thanks to the company's blockbuster coronavirus vaccine. That was the biotech's first commercialized product, highlighting its expertise in messenger RNA technology. This involves teaching the body to make proteins that will prevent or fight a certain disease. Moderna launched its coronavirus vaccine in early pandemic days and saw revenue and stock performance skyrocket. As demand declined later in the crisis, the company's earnings and stock price also suffered. But Moderna took steps to turn things around, including cost cuts, a focus on oncology and rare-disease candidates, and the release of new products. All of this boosted investor optimism, putting the stock on track for triple-digit gains this year. That's fantastic, but news this week prompted the stock to drop 17% in one trading session. After stumbling, is Moderna stock a buy on the dip? Let's find out. Moderna's coronavirus vaccine. First, a quick note on Moderna's path so far. As mentioned, the company jumped into the spotlight as it developed and commercialized a coronavirus vaccine. That product generated billions of dollars in revenue for the biotech and pushed it to profitability. As demand for vaccines declined, however, revenue slipped, Moderna swung to a loss, and investors turned away from the stock. Meanwhile, Moderna reduced costs within its vaccine program, launched new products such as the most recent - a flu vaccine for the current season - and used revenue from its respiratory vaccines to fund its robust pipeline. One particular area caught investors' attention, prompting them to return to Moderna stock, and that's oncology. And this brings me to the Moderna story in 2026. The company is studying its personalized cancer vaccine candidate, using the mRNA technology applied throughout its pipeline, in 10 clinical trials. The market has paid particular attention to the most advanced, a phase 3 trial combining Moderna's intismeran autogene with Merck's Keytruda. News back in August that the companies met primary endpoints pushed Moderna stock to a 180% gain in one trading session. Missed Nvidia in 2009? This rare signal is flashing again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. If you'd invested $5,000 then, you'd be sitting on $2,742,263 today.* Now, for the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. It's a key player in the $1.8 trillion space race, and with the stock recently sitting 20% off its highs, the window to get in early is closing fast. *Stock Advisor returns as of October 24, 2026. MRNA - Moderna. $200.10 -$2.53 (-1.25%) NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/23/26 MRNA · YTD +548.41% Key data points. Market cap $79.89B Day's range $183.00 - $206.97 52wk range $22.28 - $254.48 Volume 21.6M Avg volume 20.4M Gross margin 12.57% Data leaked from a Moderna study. Just this week, however, news of leaked data from the study had the opposite effect, resulting in a 17% drop in one session. That said, the leaked news wasn't negative. In fact, Moderna and Merck reported the drug combo reduced the risk of recurrence of death by 42% for certain melanoma patients - this is compared to treatment with Keytruda alone. After six months, this risk was reduced by 58%, the study showed. And Moderna and Merck's combined treatment cut the risk of cancer spreading to distant parts of the body by 38%. In August, the companies said they would speak with regulators regarding the filing of submissions for the treatment. So why did the stock fall on this week's news? Moderna shares are very sensitive to the release of trial data since the company is still in its early stages of commercializing products. Today, it has four products commercialized in the U.S., and they are all in the respiratory vaccine category. The idea of leaked trial data may have worried some investors before they even took a look at the data - and this may have prompted them to lock in gains on the stock after its fantastic run. Is Moderna stock a buy? So, right now, is Moderna a buy on the dip? It's important to keep in mind that the stock still has climbed more than 500% this year and is trading at about $200, well above the average Wall Street 12-month price estimate of $135. This allows The Motley Fool, LLC to put the recent decline into perspective. The dip represents a buying opportunity for the long-term investor aiming to open a position or add a few shares to a current holding. But Moderna could see other pullbacks ahead, considering the extent of its gain this year. As I mentioned above, the stock is sensitive to any clinical trial data reports - and given the number of candidates in the pipeline, many such reports lie ahead. It's important to be comfortable with the idea of potential volatility before investing in Moderna. Biotech investors who accept that may want to progressively build a position in this exciting player starting today and on future dips. Is Moderna a smart long-term play. Before you buy stock in Moderna, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now... and Moderna wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of its recommendation, you'd have $355,124!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of its recommendation, you'd have $1,296,254!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 901% - a market-crushing outperformance compared to 210% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. *Stock Advisor returns as of October 24, 2026.