Senior Manager - Loan Forecasting and Finance Analytics

About Carvana

At Carvana, we’re changing the way people buy and sell cars. With an ambitious vision and a fundamentally different approach designed to be fun, fast, and fair, Carvana became the fastest-growing automotive retailer in history. We expanded nationally, went public on the New York Stock Exchange, sold our 1 millionth car, and reached the Fortune 500, all in just eight years. 

Today, with 4 million retail customers and counting, Carvana is both the fastest-growing and the most profitable public automotive retailer, and we’re just getting started. We continue to raise the bar for our customers as we tackle the enormous opportunity still ahead in the largest consumer vertical.

Working here means being part of a team that embraces change, celebrates creative problem solving, and always strives to be better. At Carvana, you’ll have the opportunity to take on meaningful challenges, learn quickly, and help shape the future of automotive retail. If you’re driven to grow and make an impact as part of a collaborative team, you’ll fit right in. Learn more about what it’s like to work here from the people that already do. 

This is a fully on-site position, Monday through Friday, at our corporate HQ in Tempe, Arizona.

About the team and position

Carvana's Finance team manages Carvana’s lending business, which has grown to become one of the largest auto finance platforms in the United States, and which plays an integral role in supporting industry leading customer experience, growth, and profitability. We're looking for a driven and resourceful Senior Manager to lead a quantitative finance analytics team responsible for building and maintaining complex models, including credit loss and origination forecasting. finance analytics. 

You will own the models at the center of how Carvana plans and manages its lending business, including loan level cash flow forecasts, CECL reserving, loan origination plans, and unit economic models, among others.. You will work cross-functionally with Accounting, Credit, Capital Markets, and Carvana's servicing partners to strengthen forecast accuracy, support monthly and quarterly accounting processes, and identify risks and strategic opportunities across the business.

The ideal candidate pairs hands-on loan level modeling and credit loss forecasting expertise with strong quantitative skills and the ability to present complex analysis to senior leaders. A background demonstrating ownership of high profile, cross-functional projects with a focus on creating and leveraging analytics insights is a strong fit.

What you’ll be doing

Loan level forecasting

• Own and continuously improve Carvana's loan level forecast model, projecting cash flows, losses, prepayments, and recoveries across the portfolio.
• Maintain and enhancethe loan level re-forecast model each cycle, reconcile forecast to actuals, and explain the key drivers of variance to Finance and business leadership.
• Build and maintain the loan origination forecast in partnership with Credit, Capital Markets, and other stakeholders, aligning volume, mix, and pricing assumptions with the operating plan.

CECL reserves

• Own the CECL reserve calculation process, including methodology, assumptions, qualitative overlays, and documentation.
• Produce the CECL reserve forecast across planning and stress scenarios, and partner with Accounting and external auditors during monthly and quarterly close.
• Evaluate and recommend updates to reserve assumptions, including credit losses, prepayment rates, recovery rates, and macroeconomic inputs.
• Lead model governance for the forecasting function, including controls, back testing, and audit support.

Unit economics and finance analytics

• Maintain and enhance systems for measuring holistic unit economics used to evaluate profitability and performance across products, channels, credit tiers, and customer segments.
• Develop financial models and executive ready presentations that support strategic initiatives, financing decisions, and executive decision making.
• Other duties as assigned.

What you should have/know

• Bachelor's degree in Economics, Mathematics, Statistics, Engineering, or a related field.
• 8+ years in quantitative finance, credit risk, loss forecasting, or portfolio analytics at a lender, bank, fintech, or other financial institution.
• Hands on experience building loan level forecast models and CECL or allowance reserve models.
• Advanced Python for building and maintaining forecast and reserve models, along with strong SQL skills, and the ability to leverage AI to drive scale and process automation.  
• Strong background in defining, creating, and socializing analytics.
• Experience managing cross-functional projects and leading teams.
• Excellent communication and presentation skills, with comfort working alongside executive leadership.

It would be great if you also have

• Experience at an auto lender or other consumer lender.
• Familiarity with ASC 326 (CECL) and ASC 820 fair value measurements.
• Experience running models in production grade Python, including version control and automated data pipelines.
• Experience building credit loss forecasts under multiple macroeconomic scenarioss.

Don't Meet 100% of the Qualifications?

At Carvana, we value diverse backgrounds and experiences. We encourage you to apply even if your experience doesn't fit every single bullet point. Give it a shot—we'd love to hear from you!

What we’ll offer in return

• Full-Time position with a competitive salary and Carvana stock compensation.
• Medical, Dental, and Vision benefits.
• 401K with company match.
• A multitude of perks including student loan payments, discounts on vehicles, benefits for your pets, and much more.
• A great wellness program to keep you healthy and happy both physically and mentally.
• Access to opportunities to expand your skill set and share your knowledge with others across the organization.
• A company culture focused on high performance and bar-raising, with vast opportunity to learn and grow.

Other requirements

To be able to do your job at Carvana, there are some basic requirements we want to share with you.

• Must be able to read, write, speak, and understand English.

Of course, we’ll make any reasonable accommodations for those with disabilities to perform the essential functions of their jobs. 

Legal stuff

Hiring is contingent on passing a complete background check. This role is eligible for visa sponsorship.

Carvana is an equal employment opportunity employer.  All applicants receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, gender, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, marital status, national origin, age, mental or physical disability, protected veteran status, or genetic information, or any other basis protected by applicable law.  Carvana also prohibits harassment of applicants or employees based on any of these protected categories.

Please note this job description is not designed to contain a comprehensive listing of activities, duties, or responsibilities that are required of the employee for this job. Duties, responsibilities, and activities may change at any time with or without notice.