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Elon Musk calls China 'by far' the biggest AI and robotics rival as SpaceX faces new rocket competition. Musk acknowledges China's strengths in AI and robotics amidst rising competition. Published 08/20/26 AT 6:06 PM AEST Tesla and SpaceX chief executive Elon Musk has once again singled out China as the most formidable competitor facing his companies in artificial intelligence and robotics, reiterating comments he first made earlier this year even as SpaceX itself increasingly contends with emerging rivals in the commercial rocket launch business. Speaking on Tesla's fourth-quarter earnings call in January, Musk was blunt in assessing where the company's toughest competition would come from as it races to commercialize its Optimus humanoid robot. "I think China will be by far the biggest competitor in the humanoid robot market," Musk told analysts on the call. He elaborated on the specific strengths he believes give Chinese firms an edge. "China is extremely good at scaling and manufacturing, and is also strong in AI - the models being released there are already quite good and are improving rapidly," Musk said. Musk's remarks came in response to a question about the wave of Chinese startups entering the humanoid robotics space and what long-term advantages might allow Tesla to stay ahead. According to CnEVPost's coverage of the call, Musk suggested Tesla currently has no significant competitors outside China in the category, framing the country's combination of manufacturing scale and AI capability as uniquely difficult to match. "I always think people sort of outside of China kind of underestimate China. China's next level," Musk said. Even while acknowledging China's strength, Musk maintained that Tesla's Optimus robot would ultimately outperform Chinese rivals on specific technical benchmarks. "We think we'll be ahead in terms of the real-world intelligence, the electromechanical dexterity, especially the hand design, which is by far the hardest thing in the robot," Musk said, according to CnEVPost. He pointed specifically to Chinese electric vehicle maker Xpeng's humanoid robot, unveiled in November, as one example of the kind of competition Tesla is watching closely, offering a brief but notable compliment. "Not bad," Musk said of the Xpeng robot, before adding a prediction about the broader shape of the industry: "Tesla and Chinese companies will dominate the market." Musk's comments reflect a broader and longer-running pattern in how he has publicly assessed Chinese competition across his various companies. In 2021, he described Chinese automakers as the "most competitive in the world," and he has previously credited Chinese workers for helping keep Tesla's factories operational during pandemic-era disruptions, describing them at the time as "burning the 3 a.m. oil." Chinese commentators have taken note of Musk's repeated acknowledgments; the state-run Global Times cited unnamed Chinese experts describing his January remarks as reflecting "the growing strength of China's robotics and AI ecosystem." Beyond humanoid robotics, Musk has also flagged China's position in the broader artificial intelligence race in other public forums. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier this year, Musk told BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink that electrical power availability, rather than chip production, now represents the primary constraint on U.S. AI development, a limitation he suggested China does not face to the same degree. "I think the limiting factor for AI deployment is fundamentally electrical power," Musk said, according to Fortune's coverage of the discussion. "It's clear that we're very soon - maybe even later this year - we'll be producing more chips than we can turn on." While Musk has focused much of his recent public commentary on China's rise in AI and robotics, SpaceX itself faces a more immediate and increasingly crowded competitive landscape closer to home in commercial rocket launches. Rocket Lab, led by chief executive Peter Beck, has continued developing its medium-lift Neutron rocket as a direct challenger to SpaceX's workhorse Falcon 9, with the company targeting Neutron's first launch by the end of 2026, according to U.S. News. Rocket Lab entered the year with a $1.85 billion order backlog and plans to recognize 37% of that backlog by 2027. Jeff Bezos-founded Blue Origin has also emerged as a significant rival, having completed a test payload launch on its heavy-lift New Glenn rocket, a vehicle intended to compete with SpaceX's next-generation Starship. Ars Technica ranked Blue Origin as the second-most active U.S. rocket company of 2025, trailing only SpaceX itself. Newer entrants have joined the field as well, including Firefly Aerospace, which completed its own initial public offering in August 2025 and has continued expanding its rocket lineup beyond its current Alpha-class vehicle. SpaceX's dominant position in the U.S. launch market has also created friction with companies that depend on its rockets to reach orbit, even as new competitors emerge. According to a Reuters analysis of launch data compiled by astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell, Starlink satellites now account for roughly 79% of Falcon 9's launch manifest in 2026, up from 54% in 2020, as SpaceX increasingly prioritizes deploying its own satellite internet constellation. At least seven spacecraft companies have reportedly been told that Falcon 9 is fully booked for all types of missions until 2028 or 2029, according to sources cited by Reuters, a bottleneck the news agency attributed in part to SpaceX's ongoing transition toward its new, fully reusable Starship rocket. Whether SpaceX's growing internal demand for its own launch capacity, combined with the emergence of better-capitalized rivals such as Rocket Lab and Blue Origin, will meaningfully erode the company's dominant position in the commercial launch market remains an open question, even as Musk continues to direct much of his public commentary on competitive threats toward Chinese advances in artificial intelligence and robotics rather than the more immediate rocket-launch rivals emerging within the United States itself. As both fronts continue to develop, Musk's public statements suggest he views China's combination of AI capability and manufacturing scale as the more structurally significant long-term challenge facing his broader business empire, even as SpaceX navigates a more crowded and increasingly competitive domestic launch market in the near term.

California rocket launches have soared. Here's why even more are ahead. Rockets are flying more than ever across the US. Here's how California's Vandenberg Space Force Base is at the center of the surge. USA TODAY NETWORK Aug. 20, 2026, 7:01 a.m. PT * The FAA predicts nearly 4,300 rocket launches are expected in the next decade across the US. * The rise in launches is driven by commercial demand, reusable rocket technology, and NASA's Artemis moon missions. * California's Vandenberg Space Force Base set a launch record in 2025 and is on pace to surpass it in 2026. * More commercial spaceflight companies, including Blue Origin and ULA, are expanding operations at Vandenberg. In April, the world watched in awe as four intrepid astronauts were launched into space toward the moon atop NASA's most powerful rocket ever. That mission, known as Artemis II, captivated the public for 10 days as three Americans and one Canadian made a trip around the moon and back to Earth. To many observers, Artemis II signified the dawn of a new era of space exploration as NASA aims to return Americans to the lunar surface for the first time in more than 50 years. But while the mission has without a doubt been the most high-profile launch of 2026 - reigniting public interest in human spaceflight in a way not seen since the Apollo era - it hardly stands alone. By now, rockets are launching almost every day from U.S. soil - most without people aboard. In fact, just one other mission so far in 2026 - a joint NASA and SpaceX mission launched Feb. 13 to the International Space Station known as Crew-12 - sent astronauts to space. In California and beyond, rocket launches have become so routine that most barely bat an eye when SpaceX, for instance, launches its Falcon 9 multiple times a week - a feat followed by a maneuver that even more impressively has somehow become mundane: the rocket's first-stage booster returning for a bullseye landing on a ship in the middle of the ocean. And while both the east and west coasts have ushered in record year after record year for launches, rockets are only due to fly more and more frequently in the years ahead. Here's why rocket launches are predicted to dramatically increase in California and across the United States, and what that means for Americans and the spaceflight industry. FAA predicts commercial rocket launches to spike in next decade. As NASA increasingly cedes spaceflight missions to commercial companies that were once the realm of government space agencies, those sorts of missions have steadily been increasing year after year. For instance, SpaceX, the commercial spaceflight company founded by tech mogul Elon Musk, has launched its Falcon 9 rocket hundreds of times from California and Florida - making it by far the most active rocket in the world. The two-stage 230-foot rocket is not only used to deliver SpaceX's only Starlink internet satellites to Earth orbit, but is also used to propel astronauts to the space station and is contracted for a variety of commercial, civil and military payload deployments. Now, the Federal Aviation Administration - which licenses commercial rocket launches - is predicting that the rate of rocket launches across the United States is only expected to grow in the next decade. The FAA is predicting nearly 4,300 launches between fiscal 2026-2036, with spaceflights increasing annually from more than 200 a year to more than 500, according to the agency's 10-year forecast released in July. What's driving the rise of rocket launches? The projection should be no surprise to even casual observers of the spaceflight industry in the United States. SpaceX's pioneering method to recover and reuse rocket boosters has not only made manufacturing spacecraft cheaper, but has also led to faster turnaround times between missions. For years, SpaceX has taken advantage of the breakthrough in reusability to launch its Falcon 9 rocket from both Florida and California to build up a massive constellation of more than 10,000 Starlink satellites in a region nearer the atmosphere known as low-Earth orbit. President Donald Trump and his Republican administration, meanwhile, have long sought to strip away regulations on the commercial spaceflight industry. The FAA itself cited the demand for launch service providers to send satellites to space and the space tourism industry that Virgin Galactic could now corner in New Mexico as big drivers of the predicted increase. California has record year in 2025 for rocket launches. The result is prominently being seen in California, an increasingly prominent hub for U.S. spaceflight where a record 71 rocket launches were conducted in 2025 at the Vandenberg Space Force Base in Santa Barbara County. Driven by SpaceX and its workhorse Falcon 9 rocket, that record is almost assuredly due to be surpassed in 2026. After Vandenberg reached its milestone 50th launch July 21 - about two months earlier than in 2025 - Space Force officials indicated to the USA TODAY Network that an estimated 80 or more rockets are expected to get off the ground before the year ends. Vandenberg adds launch complexes for Blue Origin, SpaceX, more. And in the years ahead, even more rocket launches are on the horizon in Southern California. Plans are in the works for the rapidly-growing Vandenberg Space Force Base - managed by Space Launch Delta 30, a unit of Space Force - to add even more launch complexes for commercial spaceflight companies to lease for launch services. SpaceX, which leases Space Launch Complex 4-East for a regular diet of Falcon 9 launches, will soon be taking over management of the refurbished Space Launch Complex-6 - a historic facility first used in 1966. The site is outfitted to accommodate SpaceX's larger Falcon Heavy rocket that has never launched from California. Companies like Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin and the United Launch Alliance, a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, will also be moving into Vandenberg in the years ahead. Blue Origin has plans to launch its towering 320-foot New Glenn rocket at the new Space Launch-14 at the southernmost point tip of the base. The ULA, meanwhile, is planning for the West Coast debut of its Vulcan rocket at Space Launch Complex-3 East, which - with four solid rocket boosters mounted to the side - puts on quite a show when it lifts off. The Space Force also recently announced it is seeking applications from aerospace companies interested in leasing a new launch site, Space Launch Complex-9, located in the northern region of the base for small- and medium-class rockets. Virginia-based Northrrop Grumman and Texas-based Firefly Aersopace, which announced Aug. 11 that it reached a deal with Lockheed Martin to continue launching its small-lift Alpha rocket through 2031, also have operations at Vandenberg. NASA's Artemis moon missions also expected to drive surge. Across the U.S., the upcoming surge in rocket launches is due to a variety of circumstances that have increased the demand for launch providers to up their cadence. Most prominently, NASA is racing against China to return Americans to the moon under its Artemis campaign. The next mission under the complex program, Artemis III, would set the stage for a crewed moon landing as early as 2028 known as Artemis IV. From there, NASA looks to use a series of crewed and uncrewed missions to build a $20 billion moon base by 2032 close to the south pole where rotating crews of astronauts can live and work longterm. While NASA uses its 322-foot Space Launch System (SLS) rocket to propel astronauts toward the moon, the Artemis program also will rely on commercial rockets like Blue Origin's New Glenn and SpaceX's Starship - each of which will be responsible to sending lunar landers to space. What does this mean for Californians? More rocket launches to watch. If you want to experience a rocket getting off the ground and thundering overhead, you'll have plenty of opportunities. California is home to plenty of beaches and other spots that have become popular among spectators, while livestreams are almost always readily available for most rocket launches across the United States. So, sit back, relax and enjoy the rise of what NASA often refers to as "the golden age of innovation and exploration." Eric Lagatta is the Space Connect reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Reach him at [email protected]

NASA chief 'extremely confident' Artemis III will launch in 2027 as Moon mission hardware takes shape. The mission will test astronaut docking with Blue Origin and SpaceX vehicles in Earth orbit before Artemis IV targets a lunar landing. NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said Friday, Aug. 14, that he is "extremely confident" Artemis III will launch in 2027, as NASA continues assembling the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and Orion spacecraft for the mission at Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Isaacman made the remarks while announcing NASA's new MAX POWER aerospace expo, but his comments also provided an update on the agency's plans for its next major Artemis flight. The confidence comes as NASA moves deeper into preparations for Artemis III, which has been redesigned as an Earth-orbit demonstration mission rather than the first crewed lunar landing. The four astronauts are expected to test key rendezvous and docking operations involving test versions of lunar landers being developed by Blue Origin and SpaceX. NASA currently targets Artemis IV in 2028 for the next crewed lunar landing. Why NASA is confident about Artemis III. NASA has already begun physically assembling the Artemis III hardware at Kennedy Space Center. Four of the 10 segments of the SLS solid rocket boosters had been stacked inside the Vehicle Assembly Building as of Aug. 14, while work on the rocket's core stage and Orion spacecraft continued. The Orion crew and service modules were mated earlier this summer. NASA also conducted a cryogenic propellant-loading simulation in early August as teams prepare for the mission's upcoming testing. "I'm extremely confident that we are going to be able to launch Artemis 3 next year," Isaacman said during the Florida event, referring to the ongoing SLS stacking operations. He added that NASA is tracking the program closely and that progress on individual components is improving confidence in the mission's schedule. What Artemis III will actually do. Artemis III will begin with Blue Origin's New Glenn launching a test version of its Blue Moon Mark 2 lander into low Earth orbit. NASA's SLS rocket will then launch Orion, carrying four astronauts. Orion is expected to rendezvous and dock with the Blue Origin test vehicle. The demonstration is intended to test systems and procedures needed for future crewed lunar missions. After separating from the Blue Origin vehicle, Orion will also conduct a docking demonstration with a SpaceX Starship Version 3 vehicle. The Starship test vehicle will carry a docking adapter, but it will not have a crew habitation area, meaning the astronauts will remain inside Orion during the operation. The mission is important because NASA wants to reduce risks before astronauts eventually use these commercial landers for lunar surface operations. Isaacman said his discussions with Blue Origin had increased his confidence in what the company could accomplish, noting that the Artemis III demonstration could significantly reduce risk before Artemis IV. SpaceX and Blue Origin are key to the timeline. The Artemis III schedule depends not only on NASA's SLS and Orion hardware but also on the progress of the commercial vehicles. Isaacman said SpaceX's increasing launch cadence is particularly important. He said that if the company can continue launching its Starship vehicles at a faster pace through the end of 2026, NASA will have greater confidence in SpaceX's ability to contribute to Artemis III in 2027. Blue Origin is also developing the Blue Moon Mark 2 system that will eventually support crewed lunar landings. The Artemis III test vehicle will allow NASA and Blue Origin to demonstrate important systems before astronauts depend on the lander for a lunar mission. The original Artemis III plan called for astronauts to land on the Moon. NASA later changed the mission profile, making Artemis III an Earth-orbit test mission focused on proving the technologies and operations needed for the subsequent lunar landing effort. What Max Power has to do with Artemis III. Isaacman made the Artemis III comments while announcing MAX POWER, a two-day air and space technology event scheduled for Nov. 7-8 at and around Kennedy Space Center. The event will feature NASA aircraft, aerospace technology, commercial space hardware, astronauts and air-show demonstrations. NASA says the event could also give visitors a view of Artemis-related hardware and activities taking place at Kennedy. Isaacman said the timing could even create an unusual opportunity if the MAX POWER event coincides with Artemis III rollout or related testing. "I certainly hope we have to work some deconfliction issues between the event and Artemis 3 rollout," Isaacman said. "That would be fantastic." The NASA administrator said the agency's participation will include personnel, aircraft and astronauts, while the event itself is being organized with external partners rather than funded directly through NASA's federal budget. When will Artemis III launch? NASA has not announced a specific launch date for Artemis III. The agency's current target is 2027, and Isaacman said he is extremely confident that the mission can meet that timeline. NASA is also preparing for the next major milestone, with Artemis IV targeted for 2028 and intended to return astronauts to the lunar surface under the revised mission sequence. The immediate focus remains on completing SLS and Orion assembly, advancing the Blue Origin and SpaceX vehicles, and carrying out the tests NASA needs before committing astronauts to the next stage of lunar exploration.