Flight Test Instrumentation Systems Lead

Joby Aviation's stock has fallen about 68% since the start of the year and nearly 75% over the past 12 months. It trades near its 52-week low, even as the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) company nears its first paying passengers. Joby is in the fifth and final stage of Federal Aviation Administration type certification. Through the White House-backed eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, it could carry paying passengers before the end of 2026. With help from partner Toyota, Joby targets production of four aircraft a month in 2027, or 48 a year. The author predicts the stock will return to about $13 by October 2029, turning a $10,000 investment into about $28,000. He expects revenue to at least quadruple, with analysts forecasting more than $400 million in annual revenue in two years.

Prediction: here's what a $5,000 investment in Joby Aviation will be worth in 10 years. In 2036, Joby Aviation could look like a totally different company. Key points. * Joby Aviation is aiming to produce 500 eVTOLs per year. * With a fleet of 2,500 eVTOLs by 2036, Joby could generate $1 billion or more in passenger service revenue. * Motley Fool Issues First-Ever 9X Buy Alert" Imagine it's 2036. You're standing on a rooftop in the heart of New York City, waiting for a ride to the airport. Suddenly, there's a sound like a giant electric fan overhead, and a small helicopter-like aircraft descends. A few seconds later, you step inside, and the aircraft takes off, flying above the traffic below. Sound futuristic? Well, if Joby Aviation (JOBY -1.07%) has its way, scenes like that could become pretty ordinary over the next 10 years. That aircraft in the imagined scenario above is an electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, the very aircraft that Joby is developing. And if it can bring eVTOLs into widespread commercial use, then a $5,000 investment in Joby stock today could be worth considerably more in a decade. How much more? Let's take a look. Image source: Joby Aviation. How much could Joby be worth in 2036? Joby is, as I said, developing an eVTOL aircraft for commercial passenger services. This aircraft will carry four passengers plus a pilot on short hops between cities, airports, and other urban destinations. Currently, Joby has produced five of these eVTOLs, and it is targeting four aircraft per month in 2027. With support from its manufacturing partners Toyota (TM -0.28%), it wants to grow production to 500 aircraft a year. If it can achieve that kind of scale, Joby stock will look very different in 10 years. So let's do some hypothesizing. Missed Nvidia in 2009? (This rare signal is flashing again). When the Total Conviction signal flashed for Nvidia in 2009, most people ignored it. The ones who acted turned $5,000 into $3,105,454*. Now, for the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. It's a key player in the $1.8 trillion space race, and with the stock recently sitting 20% off its highs, the window to get in early is closing fast. *Returns as of October 6, 2026. Let's imagine Joby has produced and is operating 2,500 eVTOLs in 2036. Let's also assume that the average flight will generate about $200 in revenue. Flying 24 times a day and 300 days a year, each eVTOL would generate about $1.5 million annually. With 2,500 of these in operation, Joby would generate about $3.6 billion annually from its passenger business. If The Motley Fool, LLC assume a price-to-sales multiple of 3 (currently the average for aerospace and defense), then $3.6 billion in revenue could support a market cap of about $10.8 billion - or roughly 125% higher than today's valuation. That would more than double your $5,000 investment to $11,250. But will Joby more than double in 10 years? That's an example of how Joby could grow substantially if its eVTOL business succeeds. Indeed, its passenger eVTOL service could become very lucrative, especially with a fleet of aircraft in the thousands. But let's be real: Getting 2,500 aircraft into operation is no small feat. And there's no guarantee that its aircraft will complete 24 flights per day, nor that they will fly 300 days per year. And while Joby recently told Fox News it would charge $200 for trips between Manhattan and JFK, in reality, it might have to charge much less than that to attract consumers. Still, I think Joby has a credible shot at becoming a much larger company over the next 10 years. Risks remain - and getting the right certification is one - but for aggressive investors with a long time horizon, shares of Joby could be worth buying today, at least before its eVTOLs become a familiar sight. Is Joby Aviation a smart long-term play? Before you buy stock in Joby Aviation, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now... and Joby Aviation wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of its recommendation, you'd have $380,363!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of its recommendation, you'd have $1,315,732!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 919% - a market-crushing outperformance compared to 211% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. *Stock Advisor returns as of October 19, 2026.